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What a complete rubbish article. Apparently the three possibilities as an outcome are; 1) Nothing changes, 2) "China's rise is confirmed" (does this even mean a

What a complete rubbish article. Apparently the three possibilities as an outcome are; 1) Nothing changes, 2) "China's rise is confirmed" (does this even mean anything?) and .... 3) Biden is elected. I'm going to go out on a limb and assert that these three choices do not span the space of possibilities, or even the space of large probabilistic mass for the possibilities, but they may span the space of the acceptable outcomes to the clown who wrote it. Let me propose an alternative 3 possibilities that presently seem more likely: 1) Autarky is recognized as not so bad after all, at least in strategic resources 2) International institutions continue to not matter much in a crisis 3) Someone is elected (I could be wrong about this)

bayesian_horse 7y ago
It's a good question whether the Covid-19 crisis is good or bad for Trump. You might say Biden benefits because Trump looks so incompetent. But his voters knew that already. Most of them vote for him because of a singular issue in which they have the minority view: abortion, extreme gun rights and white superiority. To these voters, nothing else matters, even if they were totally aware of Trump's incompetency and corruption. I even think many pretend to not notice that, because they don't want to admit how important their single-issue is to them. In my opinion, Covid-19 will be good for Trump because that is his only chance to get the voter depression he needs to win against an overwhelmingly more popular candidate, according to all the polls.
- jeffreyrogers 7y ago
  Do you know Trump voters? Your depiction of them seems extremely bigoted and does not reflect the reality I've experienced living in an overwhelming Republican state. Trump's approval rating has been increasing and his disapproval rating decreasing over the course of the Covid-19 pandemic, so your read on the situation does not seem to match reality. While I agree that the handling could be better, I don't think Trump looks that incompetent, especially when compared to other countries' leaders (most of Europe is doing about as badly as the US) and organizations like the CDC (masks don't work), the WHO (closing borders is racist), and the government of New York (encouraging people to go to the movies and restaurants in March). I think your view of Trump is preventing you from getting an accurate read on reality. FYI I'm not a Republican and did not vote for Trump.
  - bayesian_horse 7y ago
    It has been well established by polling that single-issue voters favor Trump overwhelmingly. And when you ask them about Trumps' various scandals or the evidence of criminal activity, they claim to know nothing or blame Clinton and Obama. I've not seen intellectually sound defenses of Trumps behavior and conduct. Much of it is indefensible. In reality, most European countries are way ahead of the US on testing, and most have enacted social distancing way before the US. Even Italy is on track to managing Covid-19 better than the US, they are just a bit earlier on the curve, currently. None of the European leaders have downplayed the pandemic for so long or spread so much disinformation. Delayed action, no federal coordination, spreading lies - for me that's objective incompetence and not a matter of opinions. It sounds biased to say Trump is narcissistic and functionally illiterate and that he doesn't have a clue about most issues he is facing. It's also true, when you look at the data. Would it be more objective to ignore such data? My view of his supporters is giving them the benefit of the doubt. The single-issue effect is a much nicer explanation than saying they don't know enough about Trump, his corruption or contemporary issues. Or blaming them for being racist. Which many of them probably also are. A single-issue voter at least knows that he is picking evil when he thinks he is picking the "lesser" evil. A racist, or someone brainwashed by FOX news, does not know about Trumps criminal behavior, mental issues or his chronic lying.
  - rootusrootus 7y ago
    > approval rating has been increasing FWIW, that is not holding true. He got an uptick in approval of 2-3% early on, but it has been slipping a bit since then, trending slowly back towards where it was previously. About 45% approval, about 50% disapproval, so he's still underwater.
- scottlocklin 7y ago
  Who said anything about Trump? Geez, talking about people with "singular issues."

bayesian_horse 7y ago

It's a good question whether the Covid-19 crisis is good or bad for Trump. You might say Biden benefits because Trump looks so incompetent. But his voters knew that already. Most of them vote for him because of a singular issue in which they have the minority view: abortion, extreme gun rights and white superiority. To these voters, nothing else matters, even if they were totally aware of Trump's incompetency and corruption. I even think many pretend to not notice that, because they don't want to admit how important their single-issue is to them. In my opinion, Covid-19 will be good for Trump because that is his only chance to get the voter depression he needs to win against an overwhelmingly more popular candidate, according to all the polls.

jeffreyrogers 7y ago
Do you know Trump voters? Your depiction of them seems extremely bigoted and does not reflect the reality I've experienced living in an overwhelming Republican state. Trump's approval rating has been increasing and his disapproval rating decreasing over the course of the Covid-19 pandemic, so your read on the situation does not seem to match reality. While I agree that the handling could be better, I don't think Trump looks that incompetent, especially when compared to other countries' leaders (most of Europe is doing about as badly as the US) and organizations like the CDC (masks don't work), the WHO (closing borders is racist), and the government of New York (encouraging people to go to the movies and restaurants in March). I think your view of Trump is preventing you from getting an accurate read on reality. FYI I'm not a Republican and did not vote for Trump.
- bayesian_horse 7y ago
  It has been well established by polling that single-issue voters favor Trump overwhelmingly. And when you ask them about Trumps' various scandals or the evidence of criminal activity, they claim to know nothing or blame Clinton and Obama. I've not seen intellectually sound defenses of Trumps behavior and conduct. Much of it is indefensible. In reality, most European countries are way ahead of the US on testing, and most have enacted social distancing way before the US. Even Italy is on track to managing Covid-19 better than the US, they are just a bit earlier on the curve, currently. None of the European leaders have downplayed the pandemic for so long or spread so much disinformation. Delayed action, no federal coordination, spreading lies - for me that's objective incompetence and not a matter of opinions. It sounds biased to say Trump is narcissistic and functionally illiterate and that he doesn't have a clue about most issues he is facing. It's also true, when you look at the data. Would it be more objective to ignore such data? My view of his supporters is giving them the benefit of the doubt. The single-issue effect is a much nicer explanation than saying they don't know enough about Trump, his corruption or contemporary issues. Or blaming them for being racist. Which many of them probably also are. A single-issue voter at least knows that he is picking evil when he thinks he is picking the "lesser" evil. A racist, or someone brainwashed by FOX news, does not know about Trumps criminal behavior, mental issues or his chronic lying.
- rootusrootus 7y ago
  > approval rating has been increasing FWIW, that is not holding true. He got an uptick in approval of 2-3% early on, but it has been slipping a bit since then, trending slowly back towards where it was previously. About 45% approval, about 50% disapproval, so he's still underwater.
scottlocklin 7y ago
Who said anything about Trump? Geez, talking about people with "singular issues."