4 ms·

Short answer: Yes. Before the pandemic I thought Trump has a very little chance to get reelected, and he needed a bigger miracle than last time. That "miracle"

Short answer: Yes. Before the pandemic I thought Trump has a very little chance to get reelected, and he needed a bigger miracle than last time. That "miracle" might be this pandemic. His support increased slightly, the pandemic might impact voter turnout and the Republicans might find ways of using the pandemic to further increase voter suppression. Four more years under Trump will depress American influence further. I also feared that bad international actors would strike before the election, maybe more than one at a time, recognizing the US is at its weakest point in decades and can only get stronger with a president that can actually read. Examples would be Putin gobbling up territory in eastern Europe, North Korea testing a nuclear bomb or even poking South Korea militarily, Iran reaching the nuclear breakout or Israel launching a unilateral assault to stop it. Now, that might not happen, because all those countries have their hands full...

war1025 7y ago
Democrats have failed to field a candidate that is viable, which is Trump's biggest advantage. Biden has been missing in action for weeks at this point. My personal feeling is all the other candidates dropped out too soon.
- freeone3000 7y ago
  Sanders is still in, and still has 42% of allocated delegates, with more than half of delegates still unallocated. There's still a viable candidate in the race.
  - bayesian_horse 7y ago
    Anyone who calls Sanders more viable than Trump is not interested in a factual discussion. You might like Sanders more than Biden, you might like his politics more. But you aren't entitled to your own facts, and the facts are that Biden has a decisive lead that is almost impossible to catch up. Biden beats Trump in polls by a much larger margin than Sanders. Sanders was not able to motivate a larger voting turnout in the primary elections. There is no basis to call Sanders more viable.
  - rootusrootus 7y ago
    God help us. He's even older than Biden, and Biden would be record-setting were he to be elected. Both of these guys should be worried more about surviving COVID19 than anything else at this point.
    - AnimalMuppet 7y ago
      Yeah. Ironically, Trump represents the youth movement. It amazes me that the Democrats found not one, but two people older than Trump to be their two remaining possible candidates.
      - JoeAltmaier 7y ago
        Appalling, but not terribly surprising, that white-haired old guys become candidates. While different, very qualified candidates were essentially ignored.
        AnimalMuppet 7y ago
        Well, it's a bit surprising for the Democratic Party, at least if you listen to what they say about "different" people. But maybe it's easier to talk that way than to actually back such candidates. Now, in fairness, the Democratic Party has produced female candidates, and candidates of different races (for other offices), and elected them. And they produced Hillary as a candidate in 2016. And they produced Obama as a winning candidate in 2008. So they have "walked their talk". For this election, though, old white men. And emphasize the old. Bill Clinton and JFK showed the power a younger candidate could unleash. But not this time. It just feels like, these guys might have been interesting two decades ago, but today? C'mon.
        Gibbon1 7y ago
        I've thought for a while that there should be an age limit for the President and also the top positions of the house and Senate. Anecdotally lot of people seem opposed to that. However I read that Jimmy Carter believes the same. What pisses me off is the Democratic party pushing the line that not being 100% behind Clinton meant you were a misogynist. And then 4 years later they throw Harris and Warren under to the bus to support Biden. Not nice. But yeah, the Democratic Leadership is _old_.
  - AnimalMuppet 7y ago
    Sanders probably isn't a viable candidate. He can't beat Biden head-to-head (he got almost all his delegates when there were many candidates still in the race). And even if he did, I don't think he can beat Trump. On the other hand, I don't think Biden can, either. (Or at least I didn't before Covid 19, which hasn't shown Trump to be the pinnacle of competent leadership.) Is the cupboard really that bare at the Democratic Party, that these candidates are the best they have?
    - bayesian_horse 7y ago
      All of these candidates were better than Trump, by any objective measure like polls, IQ, eloquency, politics, grasp of domestic and international issues. Biden and Sanders had been pulling crowds just as large as Trump had been. The only path to victory for Trump is a really low voter turnout. Biden is beating him in polls, by a much larger margin than Clinton did. Even in "battleground" states. Covid-19 is the only factor on the horizon that could lead to the kind of voter turnout that Trump needs to win. Otherwise, again from polling and the mid-term elections, you can expect a record voter turnout, especially on the democratic side.
      - rootusrootus 7y ago
        Trump has a rock solid base, so he only needs to convince a few swing voters to jump on board. He could start pretending to be presidential (having someone else write the speeches, and refusing to do any talking that isn't on a teleprompter would be enough) and his approval ratings would shoot into the stratosphere because expectations have been set so low up until now. It is not a good idea to underestimate him. He defies expectations, over and over, while doing things every day that would be the end of any other person's political career.
        bayesian_horse 7y ago
        The base is not enough. He needs more independents to vote for him than last time. And according to most polls, he just doesn't have them. You think he can act more presidential? No, he physically can't. He can barely read. Reading a teleprompter is torture for him. He messes up about one sentence in three (being generous) and takes pauses. He sounds like a hostage reading a manuscript. He constitutionally can't tell the truth, and that is evident from his long public life and has been even more densely proven through his presidency. He really doesn't have the skills to even "act" presidential or fake empathy. He also is mentally incapable of not being in the spotlight. He is hijacking the Covid-19 press briefings, turning them into campaign speeches. Lying both about Covid-19 and about other issues like his Facebook popularity, his impeachment or whatever else he is obsessed about.
- bayesian_horse 7y ago
  Missing in action? Hardly. He warned of the pandemic long before Trump. He has a decisive lead against Sanders, and the news has focused on another small topic, recently, so maybe that's why you haven't heard so little about that. Not viable? Biden beats Trump in every poll. By a larger margin than Hillary Clinton. Trump has no prayer of winning unless there is a major voter turnout depression. It is a clear-cut requirement for his reelection, just as it was last time, when he eeked out a college victory win against a much more competent candidate.
- lostapathy 7y ago
  So much this. Aside from Biden being MIA, something had seemed very "off" about him recently as well, and it doesn't inspire confidence. I know he's always been a little gaffe-prone, but if you compare recent interviews with speeches he gave historically, it's pretty clear he's lost the edge he used to have.
  - bayesian_horse 7y ago
    Missing in Action? Other than that political rallies are off for everyone (pandemic, you heard?), he has continued his campaign. If you didn't notice that, you weren't looking in the right places. Nobody will vote for Trump because Biden's "gaffes". He clearly is more mentally fit than Trump, who can barely string together logical sentences any more.
    - lostapathy 7y ago
      I haven't been looking for him, but he's obviously not been able to make headlines, either. I don't personally have a dog in this fight, but it says something when people on both sides of the aisle question Biden's mental health. It was even posted in the Washington Post, this isn't just me imagining things.
      - bayesian_horse 7y ago
        Hard to make headlines, when you already more or less won the primary and there is this little thing going on in the World...
    - bayesian_horse 7y ago
      Oh, totally, Biden isn't a young chap. Trump is a lot worse in this department. He started out as somebody with a narcissistic personality disorder who can't read and conned his way through life, failing upwards as he went, blowing his $400 million inheritance. He was never very truthful, but now he doesn't have the mental acuity to hide it. He slurs sentences and is unable to utter any details (i.e. "A number nobody wants to think about"= "A number I can't remember"). I've hardly ever heard him cite a number that is accurate. Really, discrediting Biden on mental health issues is entirely partisan, given the data we have on Trump. When Democrats said something to the effect it was in the primary election and compared to other candidates, not compared to Trump. Trump can't compete, intellectually, with any of the Top-20 candidates on the left.
mythrwy 7y ago
I really don't understand the obsession with Trump (from both sides). It's not like he is a pivotal make it or break it for the Western world. He'll be gone in 4 or 5 years max and can only do so much damage (or good depending on how you look at it). He hasn't ended the world nor saved the world in the time he has held the office. Not that much has really changed fundamentally. There are more powerful forces for good and evil then one talking guy in a suit.
- AnimalMuppet 7y ago
  My concern is that he politicizes things that should not be politicized - the Justice Department, for instance. The damage from the precedent will survive after Trump is gone. (Yes, I know, there was some politicizing of Justice before Trump. There probably always has been. And there was the IRS business under Obama. But it seems to be much worse - or at least much more public - under Trump.)
- bayesian_horse 7y ago
  You underestimate the damage he already has done. The federal administration has been gutted by employees fleeing, getting fired and not replaced. He raised ethnic violence in the US. He damages international alliances. He gave North Korea and Iran time to do their stuff. He enshrined the current Middle-Eastern "no-peace" process. If he gets a second term, he will change the supreme court for the next two or three generations, enabling the GOP to rule over a majority. Banning abortion is a major setback to equal rights for women. Under Trump, there is no progress on ethnic or gender equalities. Given the time, he will turn back any progress on health insurance. He already messed up the response to several Hurricanes, set Iran on a path towards nuclear weapons (and a near-certain war with Israel), and is at least two months late in responding to Covid-19. Maybe you think he can't mess up much more because he has messed up so much already that there isn't much left. I believe you are mistaken!
- Mountain_Skies 7y ago
  Being obsessed with Trump gives the luxury of turning off one's brain while discussing politics, which is pretty much a requirement for anyone who is a partisan. All one needs to know is "Trump BAD!" or "Trump GOOD!" to play the game of contemporary politics. Having a nuanced view on anything without it first being filtered through the lens of Trump is unacceptable in the world of partisans. It sure makes deciding issues much easier since all one has to do is find out the concession for their side and stick to it because to not do so is to be on the wrong side of Trump (the only issue that counts for the modern partisan).

war1025 7y ago

Democrats have failed to field a candidate that is viable, which is Trump's biggest advantage. Biden has been missing in action for weeks at this point. My personal feeling is all the other candidates dropped out too soon.

freeone3000 7y ago
Sanders is still in, and still has 42% of allocated delegates, with more than half of delegates still unallocated. There's still a viable candidate in the race.
- bayesian_horse 7y ago
  Anyone who calls Sanders more viable than Trump is not interested in a factual discussion. You might like Sanders more than Biden, you might like his politics more. But you aren't entitled to your own facts, and the facts are that Biden has a decisive lead that is almost impossible to catch up. Biden beats Trump in polls by a much larger margin than Sanders. Sanders was not able to motivate a larger voting turnout in the primary elections. There is no basis to call Sanders more viable.
- rootusrootus 7y ago
  God help us. He's even older than Biden, and Biden would be record-setting were he to be elected. Both of these guys should be worried more about surviving COVID19 than anything else at this point.
  - AnimalMuppet 7y ago
    Yeah. Ironically, Trump represents the youth movement. It amazes me that the Democrats found not one, but two people older than Trump to be their two remaining possible candidates.
    - JoeAltmaier 7y ago
      Appalling, but not terribly surprising, that white-haired old guys become candidates. While different, very qualified candidates were essentially ignored.
      - AnimalMuppet 7y ago
        Well, it's a bit surprising for the Democratic Party, at least if you listen to what they say about "different" people. But maybe it's easier to talk that way than to actually back such candidates. Now, in fairness, the Democratic Party has produced female candidates, and candidates of different races (for other offices), and elected them. And they produced Hillary as a candidate in 2016. And they produced Obama as a winning candidate in 2008. So they have "walked their talk". For this election, though, old white men. And emphasize the old. Bill Clinton and JFK showed the power a younger candidate could unleash. But not this time. It just feels like, these guys might have been interesting two decades ago, but today? C'mon.
        Gibbon1 7y ago
        I've thought for a while that there should be an age limit for the President and also the top positions of the house and Senate. Anecdotally lot of people seem opposed to that. However I read that Jimmy Carter believes the same. What pisses me off is the Democratic party pushing the line that not being 100% behind Clinton meant you were a misogynist. And then 4 years later they throw Harris and Warren under to the bus to support Biden. Not nice. But yeah, the Democratic Leadership is _old_.
- AnimalMuppet 7y ago
  Sanders probably isn't a viable candidate. He can't beat Biden head-to-head (he got almost all his delegates when there were many candidates still in the race). And even if he did, I don't think he can beat Trump. On the other hand, I don't think Biden can, either. (Or at least I didn't before Covid 19, which hasn't shown Trump to be the pinnacle of competent leadership.) Is the cupboard really that bare at the Democratic Party, that these candidates are the best they have?
  - bayesian_horse 7y ago
    All of these candidates were better than Trump, by any objective measure like polls, IQ, eloquency, politics, grasp of domestic and international issues. Biden and Sanders had been pulling crowds just as large as Trump had been. The only path to victory for Trump is a really low voter turnout. Biden is beating him in polls, by a much larger margin than Clinton did. Even in "battleground" states. Covid-19 is the only factor on the horizon that could lead to the kind of voter turnout that Trump needs to win. Otherwise, again from polling and the mid-term elections, you can expect a record voter turnout, especially on the democratic side.
    - rootusrootus 7y ago
      Trump has a rock solid base, so he only needs to convince a few swing voters to jump on board. He could start pretending to be presidential (having someone else write the speeches, and refusing to do any talking that isn't on a teleprompter would be enough) and his approval ratings would shoot into the stratosphere because expectations have been set so low up until now. It is not a good idea to underestimate him. He defies expectations, over and over, while doing things every day that would be the end of any other person's political career.
      - bayesian_horse 7y ago
        The base is not enough. He needs more independents to vote for him than last time. And according to most polls, he just doesn't have them. You think he can act more presidential? No, he physically can't. He can barely read. Reading a teleprompter is torture for him. He messes up about one sentence in three (being generous) and takes pauses. He sounds like a hostage reading a manuscript. He constitutionally can't tell the truth, and that is evident from his long public life and has been even more densely proven through his presidency. He really doesn't have the skills to even "act" presidential or fake empathy. He also is mentally incapable of not being in the spotlight. He is hijacking the Covid-19 press briefings, turning them into campaign speeches. Lying both about Covid-19 and about other issues like his Facebook popularity, his impeachment or whatever else he is obsessed about.
bayesian_horse 7y ago
Missing in action? Hardly. He warned of the pandemic long before Trump. He has a decisive lead against Sanders, and the news has focused on another small topic, recently, so maybe that's why you haven't heard so little about that. Not viable? Biden beats Trump in every poll. By a larger margin than Hillary Clinton. Trump has no prayer of winning unless there is a major voter turnout depression. It is a clear-cut requirement for his reelection, just as it was last time, when he eeked out a college victory win against a much more competent candidate.
lostapathy 7y ago
So much this. Aside from Biden being MIA, something had seemed very "off" about him recently as well, and it doesn't inspire confidence. I know he's always been a little gaffe-prone, but if you compare recent interviews with speeches he gave historically, it's pretty clear he's lost the edge he used to have.
- bayesian_horse 7y ago
  Missing in Action? Other than that political rallies are off for everyone (pandemic, you heard?), he has continued his campaign. If you didn't notice that, you weren't looking in the right places. Nobody will vote for Trump because Biden's "gaffes". He clearly is more mentally fit than Trump, who can barely string together logical sentences any more.
  - lostapathy 7y ago
    I haven't been looking for him, but he's obviously not been able to make headlines, either. I don't personally have a dog in this fight, but it says something when people on both sides of the aisle question Biden's mental health. It was even posted in the Washington Post, this isn't just me imagining things.
    - bayesian_horse 7y ago
      Hard to make headlines, when you already more or less won the primary and there is this little thing going on in the World...
  - bayesian_horse 7y ago
    Oh, totally, Biden isn't a young chap. Trump is a lot worse in this department. He started out as somebody with a narcissistic personality disorder who can't read and conned his way through life, failing upwards as he went, blowing his $400 million inheritance. He was never very truthful, but now he doesn't have the mental acuity to hide it. He slurs sentences and is unable to utter any details (i.e. "A number nobody wants to think about"= "A number I can't remember"). I've hardly ever heard him cite a number that is accurate. Really, discrediting Biden on mental health issues is entirely partisan, given the data we have on Trump. When Democrats said something to the effect it was in the primary election and compared to other candidates, not compared to Trump. Trump can't compete, intellectually, with any of the Top-20 candidates on the left.

mythrwy 7y ago

I really don't understand the obsession with Trump (from both sides). It's not like he is a pivotal make it or break it for the Western world. He'll be gone in 4 or 5 years max and can only do so much damage (or good depending on how you look at it). He hasn't ended the world nor saved the world in the time he has held the office. Not that much has really changed fundamentally. There are more powerful forces for good and evil then one talking guy in a suit.

AnimalMuppet 7y ago
My concern is that he politicizes things that should not be politicized - the Justice Department, for instance. The damage from the precedent will survive after Trump is gone. (Yes, I know, there was some politicizing of Justice before Trump. There probably always has been. And there was the IRS business under Obama. But it seems to be much worse - or at least much more public - under Trump.)
bayesian_horse 7y ago
You underestimate the damage he already has done. The federal administration has been gutted by employees fleeing, getting fired and not replaced. He raised ethnic violence in the US. He damages international alliances. He gave North Korea and Iran time to do their stuff. He enshrined the current Middle-Eastern "no-peace" process. If he gets a second term, he will change the supreme court for the next two or three generations, enabling the GOP to rule over a majority. Banning abortion is a major setback to equal rights for women. Under Trump, there is no progress on ethnic or gender equalities. Given the time, he will turn back any progress on health insurance. He already messed up the response to several Hurricanes, set Iran on a path towards nuclear weapons (and a near-certain war with Israel), and is at least two months late in responding to Covid-19. Maybe you think he can't mess up much more because he has messed up so much already that there isn't much left. I believe you are mistaken!
Mountain_Skies 7y ago
Being obsessed with Trump gives the luxury of turning off one's brain while discussing politics, which is pretty much a requirement for anyone who is a partisan. All one needs to know is "Trump BAD!" or "Trump GOOD!" to play the game of contemporary politics. Having a nuanced view on anything without it first being filtered through the lens of Trump is unacceptable in the world of partisans. It sure makes deciding issues much easier since all one has to do is find out the concession for their side and stick to it because to not do so is to be on the wrong side of Trump (the only issue that counts for the modern partisan).