Expanding on this, the skill of figuring out the odds of bin Laden being in the compound is unrelated to the skill of figuring out how to handle both outcomes,

Expanding on this, the skill of figuring out the odds of bin Laden being in the compound is unrelated to the skill of figuring out how to handle both outcomes, and whether that is a worthwhile risk to take. So a good Bayesian can inform a good decision maker, but the Bayesian is not necessarily a good decision maker. Similarly in the book, one of the superforecasters made the point that listening to well-informed experts who might be bad at making decisions was very useful. Because the expert really did have a good grasp of the current situation and could explain it clearly, which was a great starting place for the Bayesian who lacked background. Preparing background and making predictions are both required, but the combination of skills need not start in the same brain.