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The public currently wouldn't buy the stock due to bankruptcy risk. If the government commits to buying what's left at the same terms the public would start buy

The public currently wouldn't buy the stock due to bankruptcy risk. If the government commits to buying what's left at the same terms the public would start buying as well reducing the burden on taxpayers. Historically this kind of deal has been profitable for governments in the cases that I know of (in banking), while at the same time keeping more jobs and thus reducing economic impact of unemployment.

tathougies 7y ago
Oh i have no doubt the government will make money from this. I was saying what i thought the right way to finance this is. You say the gov will make money -- certainly true. It would be much better for the airlines to issue to the public though so the public can make money
whatok 7y ago
If the public wouldn't buy airlines stock because of "bankruptcy risk" then why was Carnival Cruise Lines able to raise more than $6bn in debt and equity recently?
- toomuchtodo 7y ago
  Because Saudi Arabia bought a lot of that equity. Not who I want being a majority (EDIT: s/majority/substantial) owner in my country's airlines if they need a bailout; have the US Treasury own them. https://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabias-sovereign-wealth-fund-buys-a-stake-in-carnival-2020-4 https://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabias-sovereign-weal...
  - whatok 7y ago
    That's incorrect. PIF's stake was as of 3/26 while CCL did the equity deal on 4/1. I don't know if they participated in that equity deal but they would have to disclose if they increased ownership. The equity deal was only $500mm vs $5.75bn in converts and 1st lien bonds. Non-insiders did not know PIF invested in the company when they raised this recent $ so it's not like that was some sort of anchor. Also, given their recent investments, PIF owning a significant stake in anything should make you run the other way.
    - toomuchtodo 7y ago
      I'll have to go through the disclosures before I speak more confidently about the recent equity activity in CCL, but PIF did very recently disclose they acquired 43.5 million shares, a 8.2% stake in CCL. This makes PIF their second-largest investor. This surely contributed in CCLs ability to do a rapid raise right after. I corrected my terminology faux pax above.
      - whatok 7y ago
        I'm telling you as a market participant that PIF's stake was not known at the time. Here's a link to CCL on EDGAR: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=carnival+cruise+lines&owner=exclude&action=getcompany https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=carnival+cr... The filing date for the 13G was yesterday. Link to said 13G: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/815097/000101143820000114/form_sc13g-carnival.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/815097/0001011438200...
        toomuchtodo 7y ago
        You're right, I stand corrected. Thanks for the links.
andysandwich 7y ago
Delta and United were each able to raise over $2B in credit. They have plenty of airplanes and facilities to use as collateral. Coming out of 2019 United had about $29B equity (assets - liabilities). They don't really need a bailout to stay in business. The grant money for employees is contingent upon them keeping open flight routes that they'd otherwise close. Sec. of Transportation wants low traffic (small) cities to have access to medical supplies and whatnot (at least that's what she says, of course she's pro-business as well).
- whatok 7y ago
  Capital markets are open right now. There's a price but they are open.

tathougies 7y ago

Oh i have no doubt the government will make money from this. I was saying what i thought the right way to finance this is. You say the gov will make money -- certainly true. It would be much better for the airlines to issue to the public though so the public can make money

whatok 7y ago

If the public wouldn't buy airlines stock because of "bankruptcy risk" then why was Carnival Cruise Lines able to raise more than $6bn in debt and equity recently?

toomuchtodo 7y ago
Because Saudi Arabia bought a lot of that equity. Not who I want being a majority (EDIT: s/majority/substantial) owner in my country's airlines if they need a bailout; have the US Treasury own them. https://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabias-sovereign-wealth-fund-buys-a-stake-in-carnival-2020-4 https://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabias-sovereign-weal...
- whatok 7y ago
  That's incorrect. PIF's stake was as of 3/26 while CCL did the equity deal on 4/1. I don't know if they participated in that equity deal but they would have to disclose if they increased ownership. The equity deal was only $500mm vs $5.75bn in converts and 1st lien bonds. Non-insiders did not know PIF invested in the company when they raised this recent $ so it's not like that was some sort of anchor. Also, given their recent investments, PIF owning a significant stake in anything should make you run the other way.
  - toomuchtodo 7y ago
    I'll have to go through the disclosures before I speak more confidently about the recent equity activity in CCL, but PIF did very recently disclose they acquired 43.5 million shares, a 8.2% stake in CCL. This makes PIF their second-largest investor. This surely contributed in CCLs ability to do a rapid raise right after. I corrected my terminology faux pax above.
    - whatok 7y ago
      I'm telling you as a market participant that PIF's stake was not known at the time. Here's a link to CCL on EDGAR: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=carnival+cruise+lines&owner=exclude&action=getcompany https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=carnival+cr... The filing date for the 13G was yesterday. Link to said 13G: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/815097/000101143820000114/form_sc13g-carnival.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/815097/0001011438200...
      - toomuchtodo 7y ago
        You're right, I stand corrected. Thanks for the links.

andysandwich 7y ago

Delta and United were each able to raise over $2B in credit. They have plenty of airplanes and facilities to use as collateral. Coming out of 2019 United had about $29B equity (assets - liabilities). They don't really need a bailout to stay in business. The grant money for employees is contingent upon them keeping open flight routes that they'd otherwise close. Sec. of Transportation wants low traffic (small) cities to have access to medical supplies and whatnot (at least that's what she says, of course she's pro-business as well).

whatok 7y ago
Capital markets are open right now. There's a price but they are open.