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"And it has to be something unforeseeable by people knowledgeable in the field" No - this is not true at all. 1) All of the major economic calamities were 'pr
by jariel 7y ago
"And it has to be something unforeseeable by people knowledgeable in the field"
No - this is not true at all.
1) All of the major economic calamities were 'predicted by someone' in the field.
2) Black Swans are 'improbable' - which COVID absolutely is.
"According to Taleb, black swans are events that emerge unpredictably, like a tornado, from a fat-tailed statistical distribution."
What we are seeing is point-blank exemplary of 'Black Swan'.
- kelnos 7y agoAfter reading a bit more about Taleb's definition, I don't really agree or disagree with you. I now think it's actually easy to argue both that COVID-19 is and is not a black swan event, given the (likely intentional) ambiguity of the definition, which is more like a heuristic than a definition.