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Exactly. A pandemic scenario was modeled/tested just last year [1]. Some participating states appear to have learned from it, other not so much. [1] https://

Exactly. A pandemic scenario was modeled/tested just last year [1]. Some participating states appear to have learned from it, other not so much. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimson_Contagion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimson_Contagion

jariel 7y ago
This is ultra cherry-picking. 'Some guy, somewhere predicted the 2008 crash, therefore, it should have been obvious' People have been running 'pandemic' simulations forever, this is not a new idea. There are multitudes of catastrophic scenarios we could face. Pandemics that break out at this level are probably 'once in several generations' (at least pre-full globalization) which implies effective 'Black Swan'. The next pandemic may be in 20 or 200 years, nobody knows, hence 'Black Swan'.
- blaser-waffle 7y ago
  Ultra cherry picking? Did you even read the wiki article? It was a study that lasted for months and involved the US Fed Gov plus 12 states. This isn't one talking head spouting their pet theories on their blog, then later turned out to be correct.
  - jariel 7y ago
    Every major calamity was predicted by someone (or group) on some level, with relevant credentials. The US military runs China-US engagement scenarios all the time, of a variety of flavours i.e. S. China sea flare-up, Tawian invasions etc. You know we are running Europe/WW3/Russian nuclear standoff drills and simulations - all the time, right? Any one of those scenarios is very unlikely to happen, but somewhere in the world, something similar will happen. The Fed and large banks constantly 'stress testing' and producing models for relatively unpredictable things? Insurance companies are constantly doing fairly complex modelling built with really good data? And academia is rife with all of those activities. After the 2008 crises, there would have been an easy handful of individuals of credibility who were predicting much of what happened. Dot-com crash. 9/11. Saddam's Invasion of Iraq. If there's any likelihood at all of something happening, someone is talking about it in a meaningful way.

jariel 7y ago

This is ultra cherry-picking. 'Some guy, somewhere predicted the 2008 crash, therefore, it should have been obvious' People have been running 'pandemic' simulations forever, this is not a new idea. There are multitudes of catastrophic scenarios we could face. Pandemics that break out at this level are probably 'once in several generations' (at least pre-full globalization) which implies effective 'Black Swan'. The next pandemic may be in 20 or 200 years, nobody knows, hence 'Black Swan'.

blaser-waffle 7y ago
Ultra cherry picking? Did you even read the wiki article? It was a study that lasted for months and involved the US Fed Gov plus 12 states. This isn't one talking head spouting their pet theories on their blog, then later turned out to be correct.
- jariel 7y ago
  Every major calamity was predicted by someone (or group) on some level, with relevant credentials. The US military runs China-US engagement scenarios all the time, of a variety of flavours i.e. S. China sea flare-up, Tawian invasions etc. You know we are running Europe/WW3/Russian nuclear standoff drills and simulations - all the time, right? Any one of those scenarios is very unlikely to happen, but somewhere in the world, something similar will happen. The Fed and large banks constantly 'stress testing' and producing models for relatively unpredictable things? Insurance companies are constantly doing fairly complex modelling built with really good data? And academia is rife with all of those activities. After the 2008 crises, there would have been an easy handful of individuals of credibility who were predicting much of what happened. Dot-com crash. 9/11. Saddam's Invasion of Iraq. If there's any likelihood at all of something happening, someone is talking about it in a meaningful way.