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That it was in the realm of possibility doesn't make it not a 'black swan'. Black swans by definition are possible. COVID-19 is unequivocally a Black Swan. Ho

by jariel 7y ago

That it was in the realm of possibility doesn't make it not a 'black swan'. Black swans by definition are possible. COVID-19 is unequivocally a Black Swan. Hopefully, we get a CDC 'mini Army' like Korea/Taiwan have so this doesn't happen again.

TeMPOraL 7y ago
> Hopefully, we get a CDC 'mini Army' like Korea/Taiwan have so this doesn't happen again. The difficult part isn't getting a 'mini Army' after a crisis, it's keeping it until the next crisis, against all the beancounters that will soon swoop down and try to optimize it away.
- taneq 7y ago
  Exactly. Like any preventative maintenance, when it's working it looks like you don't need it. People are terrible at remembering this without a shakeup every now and then.
- jariel 7y ago
  Yes, absolutely. But this time, there is a) political impetus and b) economic calculus. The plebes will 'vote' for this now, it's something ingrained into an entire generation now. Banks, regulators, government - they all have crystal clear economic justification. Large financial institutions, definitely insurance, funds etc. will now integrate all of this into their calculus. So even 'big business' will be on board. Large banks will pressure governments that don't have a Pandemic Response time. The elite and plebes are now on board with the 'Pandemic Army' so I suggest it will exist in some, more meaningful fashion. It might not be 'the best' but it will exist.
kelnos 7y ago
That's a bit of a contradiction. If something is not in the realm of possibility, then it is impossible, and thus cannot (in a strict, logical sense) happen. If we were to define a black swan event as something "not in the realm of possibility" then there would literally never be a black swan event, ever... because things that are not in the realm of possibility do not happen, full stop. So yes, as you say, a black swan event is allowed to be something that is in the realm of possibility. But it has to be improbable. And it has to be something unforeseeable by people knowledgeable in the field. COVID-19 does not pass either of those tests; it definitely is not a black swan event.
- OrangeMango 7y ago
  Exactly. A pandemic scenario was modeled/tested just last year [1]. Some participating states appear to have learned from it, other not so much. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimson_Contagion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimson_Contagion
  - jariel 7y ago
    This is ultra cherry-picking. 'Some guy, somewhere predicted the 2008 crash, therefore, it should have been obvious' People have been running 'pandemic' simulations forever, this is not a new idea. There are multitudes of catastrophic scenarios we could face. Pandemics that break out at this level are probably 'once in several generations' (at least pre-full globalization) which implies effective 'Black Swan'. The next pandemic may be in 20 or 200 years, nobody knows, hence 'Black Swan'.
    - blaser-waffle 7y ago
      Ultra cherry picking? Did you even read the wiki article? It was a study that lasted for months and involved the US Fed Gov plus 12 states. This isn't one talking head spouting their pet theories on their blog, then later turned out to be correct.
      - jariel 7y ago
        Every major calamity was predicted by someone (or group) on some level, with relevant credentials. The US military runs China-US engagement scenarios all the time, of a variety of flavours i.e. S. China sea flare-up, Tawian invasions etc. You know we are running Europe/WW3/Russian nuclear standoff drills and simulations - all the time, right? Any one of those scenarios is very unlikely to happen, but somewhere in the world, something similar will happen. The Fed and large banks constantly 'stress testing' and producing models for relatively unpredictable things? Insurance companies are constantly doing fairly complex modelling built with really good data? And academia is rife with all of those activities. After the 2008 crises, there would have been an easy handful of individuals of credibility who were predicting much of what happened. Dot-com crash. 9/11. Saddam's Invasion of Iraq. If there's any likelihood at all of something happening, someone is talking about it in a meaningful way.

by jariel 7y ago

TeMPOraL 7y ago

> Hopefully, we get a CDC 'mini Army' like Korea/Taiwan have so this doesn't happen again. The difficult part isn't getting a 'mini Army' after a crisis, it's keeping it until the next crisis, against all the beancounters that will soon swoop down and try to optimize it away.

taneq 7y ago
Exactly. Like any preventative maintenance, when it's working it looks like you don't need it. People are terrible at remembering this without a shakeup every now and then.
jariel 7y ago
Yes, absolutely. But this time, there is a) political impetus and b) economic calculus. The plebes will 'vote' for this now, it's something ingrained into an entire generation now. Banks, regulators, government - they all have crystal clear economic justification. Large financial institutions, definitely insurance, funds etc. will now integrate all of this into their calculus. So even 'big business' will be on board. Large banks will pressure governments that don't have a Pandemic Response time. The elite and plebes are now on board with the 'Pandemic Army' so I suggest it will exist in some, more meaningful fashion. It might not be 'the best' but it will exist.

kelnos 7y ago

That's a bit of a contradiction. If something is not in the realm of possibility, then it is impossible, and thus cannot (in a strict, logical sense) happen. If we were to define a black swan event as something "not in the realm of possibility" then there would literally never be a black swan event, ever... because things that are not in the realm of possibility do not happen, full stop. So yes, as you say, a black swan event is allowed to be something that is in the realm of possibility. But it has to be improbable. And it has to be something unforeseeable by people knowledgeable in the field. COVID-19 does not pass either of those tests; it definitely is not a black swan event.

OrangeMango 7y ago
Exactly. A pandemic scenario was modeled/tested just last year [1]. Some participating states appear to have learned from it, other not so much. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimson_Contagion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimson_Contagion
- jariel 7y ago
  This is ultra cherry-picking. 'Some guy, somewhere predicted the 2008 crash, therefore, it should have been obvious' People have been running 'pandemic' simulations forever, this is not a new idea. There are multitudes of catastrophic scenarios we could face. Pandemics that break out at this level are probably 'once in several generations' (at least pre-full globalization) which implies effective 'Black Swan'. The next pandemic may be in 20 or 200 years, nobody knows, hence 'Black Swan'.
  - blaser-waffle 7y ago
    Ultra cherry picking? Did you even read the wiki article? It was a study that lasted for months and involved the US Fed Gov plus 12 states. This isn't one talking head spouting their pet theories on their blog, then later turned out to be correct.
    - jariel 7y ago
      Every major calamity was predicted by someone (or group) on some level, with relevant credentials. The US military runs China-US engagement scenarios all the time, of a variety of flavours i.e. S. China sea flare-up, Tawian invasions etc. You know we are running Europe/WW3/Russian nuclear standoff drills and simulations - all the time, right? Any one of those scenarios is very unlikely to happen, but somewhere in the world, something similar will happen. The Fed and large banks constantly 'stress testing' and producing models for relatively unpredictable things? Insurance companies are constantly doing fairly complex modelling built with really good data? And academia is rife with all of those activities. After the 2008 crises, there would have been an easy handful of individuals of credibility who were predicting much of what happened. Dot-com crash. 9/11. Saddam's Invasion of Iraq. If there's any likelihood at all of something happening, someone is talking about it in a meaningful way.