5 ms·

What little I know of history has indeed convinced me that major ordeals are quite often the logical conclusion of small or past things unaddressed, gone out of

by K0SM0S 7y ago

What little I know of history has indeed convinced me that major ordeals are quite often the logical conclusion of small or past things unaddressed, gone out of proportion. "Bubbles" are such a thing. Real "black swans" are incredibly rare; and this (CODID-19 pandemic) isn't one. Indeed, the current dotcom situation is a bubble, and it was long due. Meanwhile, let's hope investors become better at identifying real value, real innovation, real game changers. It's often the boring stuff.

sanedigital 7y ago
You don’t think having almost every major metropolitan area in the world under some degree of reduced economic activity for 1-3 months qualifies as a Black Swan event? What does, then?
- mettamage 7y ago
  Is it a Black Swann? This event was in the possibility space of epidimiologists. I don't have a source unfortunately, but it's findable.
  - jariel 7y ago
    That it was in the realm of possibility doesn't make it not a 'black swan'. Black swans by definition are possible. COVID-19 is unequivocally a Black Swan. Hopefully, we get a CDC 'mini Army' like Korea/Taiwan have so this doesn't happen again.
    - TeMPOraL 7y ago
      > Hopefully, we get a CDC 'mini Army' like Korea/Taiwan have so this doesn't happen again. The difficult part isn't getting a 'mini Army' after a crisis, it's keeping it until the next crisis, against all the beancounters that will soon swoop down and try to optimize it away.
      - taneq 7y ago
        Exactly. Like any preventative maintenance, when it's working it looks like you don't need it. People are terrible at remembering this without a shakeup every now and then.
      - jariel 7y ago
        Yes, absolutely. But this time, there is a) political impetus and b) economic calculus. The plebes will 'vote' for this now, it's something ingrained into an entire generation now. Banks, regulators, government - they all have crystal clear economic justification. Large financial institutions, definitely insurance, funds etc. will now integrate all of this into their calculus. So even 'big business' will be on board. Large banks will pressure governments that don't have a Pandemic Response time. The elite and plebes are now on board with the 'Pandemic Army' so I suggest it will exist in some, more meaningful fashion. It might not be 'the best' but it will exist.
    - kelnos 7y ago
      That's a bit of a contradiction. If something is not in the realm of possibility, then it is impossible, and thus cannot (in a strict, logical sense) happen. If we were to define a black swan event as something "not in the realm of possibility" then there would literally never be a black swan event, ever... because things that are not in the realm of possibility do not happen, full stop. So yes, as you say, a black swan event is allowed to be something that is in the realm of possibility. But it has to be improbable. And it has to be something unforeseeable by people knowledgeable in the field. COVID-19 does not pass either of those tests; it definitely is not a black swan event.
      - OrangeMango 7y ago
        Exactly. A pandemic scenario was modeled/tested just last year [1]. Some participating states appear to have learned from it, other not so much. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimson_Contagion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimson_Contagion
        jariel 7y ago
        This is ultra cherry-picking. 'Some guy, somewhere predicted the 2008 crash, therefore, it should have been obvious' People have been running 'pandemic' simulations forever, this is not a new idea. There are multitudes of catastrophic scenarios we could face. Pandemics that break out at this level are probably 'once in several generations' (at least pre-full globalization) which implies effective 'Black Swan'. The next pandemic may be in 20 or 200 years, nobody knows, hence 'Black Swan'.
        blaser-waffle 7y ago
        Ultra cherry picking? Did you even read the wiki article? It was a study that lasted for months and involved the US Fed Gov plus 12 states. This isn't one talking head spouting their pet theories on their blog, then later turned out to be correct.
        jariel 7y ago
  - kortilla 7y ago
    Nuclear bombs being launched at all major US cities simultaneously was just as much a possibility as a global pandemic for quite some time. It doesn’t mean that it wouldn’t have been a black swan event.
    - GarrisonPrime 7y ago
      A pandemic is virtually guaranteed to happen every so often. And if a nuclear war broke out, that'd hardly be unexpected or random. "Black Swan" does not mearly mean "unique and significant". The unpredictability of a black swan event is the main cause of concern, as it doesn't allow for much preparation.
      - kortilla 7y ago
        Yes, nuclear war would be very unexpected/random. Every war always is. It is no different than the pandemic or any other black swan event.
- L_226 7y ago
  In the US at least, this crisis and the administration's response takes the form of a "Grey Rhino". Something you can see coming, but you need to _act now_ to do something about it or be at its mercy. From the website of the woman who coined the term - Michele Wucker [0]: """ A “gray rhino” is a highly probable, high impact yet neglected threat: kin to both the elephant in the room and the improbable and unforeseeable black swan. Gray rhinos are not random surprises, but occur after a series of warnings and visible evidence. The bursting of the housing bubble in 2008, the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and other natural disasters, the new digital technologies that upended the media world, the fall of the Soviet Union…all were evident well in advance. """ [0] https://www.wucker.com/writing/the-gray-rhino/ https://www.wucker.com/writing/the-gray-rhino/
- davidkopf 7y ago
  Here is Nassim Taleb, who invented the term explain it is not a black swan: https://youtu.be/lBjVTm7F1lQ https://youtu.be/lBjVTm7F1lQ
charwalker 7y ago
Money/debt is still very cheap but hopefully the starry eyed VC groups are finally recognizing that not everything can grow exponentially with linear costs, not even true tech companies. Everything is reliant upon everything else at varying levels of complexity and complication. If you go all in on 10 things, all 10 can still fail hard or break even long enough to bury your investment. Though at the moment there must be some neat online only systems being stood up by devs sheltering at home.

by K0SM0S 7y ago

sanedigital 7y ago

You don’t think having almost every major metropolitan area in the world under some degree of reduced economic activity for 1-3 months qualifies as a Black Swan event? What does, then?

mettamage 7y ago
Is it a Black Swann? This event was in the possibility space of epidimiologists. I don't have a source unfortunately, but it's findable.
- jariel 7y ago
  That it was in the realm of possibility doesn't make it not a 'black swan'. Black swans by definition are possible. COVID-19 is unequivocally a Black Swan. Hopefully, we get a CDC 'mini Army' like Korea/Taiwan have so this doesn't happen again.
  - TeMPOraL 7y ago
    > Hopefully, we get a CDC 'mini Army' like Korea/Taiwan have so this doesn't happen again. The difficult part isn't getting a 'mini Army' after a crisis, it's keeping it until the next crisis, against all the beancounters that will soon swoop down and try to optimize it away.
    - taneq 7y ago
      Exactly. Like any preventative maintenance, when it's working it looks like you don't need it. People are terrible at remembering this without a shakeup every now and then.
    - jariel 7y ago
      Yes, absolutely. But this time, there is a) political impetus and b) economic calculus. The plebes will 'vote' for this now, it's something ingrained into an entire generation now. Banks, regulators, government - they all have crystal clear economic justification. Large financial institutions, definitely insurance, funds etc. will now integrate all of this into their calculus. So even 'big business' will be on board. Large banks will pressure governments that don't have a Pandemic Response time. The elite and plebes are now on board with the 'Pandemic Army' so I suggest it will exist in some, more meaningful fashion. It might not be 'the best' but it will exist.
  - kelnos 7y ago
    That's a bit of a contradiction. If something is not in the realm of possibility, then it is impossible, and thus cannot (in a strict, logical sense) happen. If we were to define a black swan event as something "not in the realm of possibility" then there would literally never be a black swan event, ever... because things that are not in the realm of possibility do not happen, full stop. So yes, as you say, a black swan event is allowed to be something that is in the realm of possibility. But it has to be improbable. And it has to be something unforeseeable by people knowledgeable in the field. COVID-19 does not pass either of those tests; it definitely is not a black swan event.
    - OrangeMango 7y ago
      Exactly. A pandemic scenario was modeled/tested just last year [1]. Some participating states appear to have learned from it, other not so much. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimson_Contagion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimson_Contagion
      - jariel 7y ago
        This is ultra cherry-picking. 'Some guy, somewhere predicted the 2008 crash, therefore, it should have been obvious' People have been running 'pandemic' simulations forever, this is not a new idea. There are multitudes of catastrophic scenarios we could face. Pandemics that break out at this level are probably 'once in several generations' (at least pre-full globalization) which implies effective 'Black Swan'. The next pandemic may be in 20 or 200 years, nobody knows, hence 'Black Swan'.
        blaser-waffle 7y ago
        Ultra cherry picking? Did you even read the wiki article? It was a study that lasted for months and involved the US Fed Gov plus 12 states. This isn't one talking head spouting their pet theories on their blog, then later turned out to be correct.
        jariel 7y ago
- kortilla 7y ago
  Nuclear bombs being launched at all major US cities simultaneously was just as much a possibility as a global pandemic for quite some time. It doesn’t mean that it wouldn’t have been a black swan event.
  - GarrisonPrime 7y ago
    A pandemic is virtually guaranteed to happen every so often. And if a nuclear war broke out, that'd hardly be unexpected or random. "Black Swan" does not mearly mean "unique and significant". The unpredictability of a black swan event is the main cause of concern, as it doesn't allow for much preparation.
    - kortilla 7y ago
      Yes, nuclear war would be very unexpected/random. Every war always is. It is no different than the pandemic or any other black swan event.
L_226 7y ago
In the US at least, this crisis and the administration's response takes the form of a "Grey Rhino". Something you can see coming, but you need to _act now_ to do something about it or be at its mercy. From the website of the woman who coined the term - Michele Wucker [0]: """ A “gray rhino” is a highly probable, high impact yet neglected threat: kin to both the elephant in the room and the improbable and unforeseeable black swan. Gray rhinos are not random surprises, but occur after a series of warnings and visible evidence. The bursting of the housing bubble in 2008, the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and other natural disasters, the new digital technologies that upended the media world, the fall of the Soviet Union…all were evident well in advance. """ [0] https://www.wucker.com/writing/the-gray-rhino/ https://www.wucker.com/writing/the-gray-rhino/
davidkopf 7y ago
Here is Nassim Taleb, who invented the term explain it is not a black swan: https://youtu.be/lBjVTm7F1lQ https://youtu.be/lBjVTm7F1lQ

charwalker 7y ago

Money/debt is still very cheap but hopefully the starry eyed VC groups are finally recognizing that not everything can grow exponentially with linear costs, not even true tech companies. Everything is reliant upon everything else at varying levels of complexity and complication. If you go all in on 10 things, all 10 can still fail hard or break even long enough to bury your investment. Though at the moment there must be some neat online only systems being stood up by devs sheltering at home.