Lots of people here are pointing to Philip Tetlock's book Superforecasting which describes these forecasting problems, and also a more rigorous, scientific app

Lots of people here are pointing to Philip Tetlock's book Superforecasting which describes these forecasting problems, and also a more rigorous, scientific approach to forecasting. Interestingly, Tetlock's 'superforecasters' predict a 30% chance of more than 350,000 coronavirus deaths in the US: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/ https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/ This is up from 17% on March 21