4 ms·

You guys are still doing this..?

concordDance 7y ago
1.3 million people a year killed by car crashes, biased moderately towards the young (around 3 to 1 is comparing a 30 year old and a 60 year old). In contrast, COVID-19 has a fatality rate that looks roughly like the normal yearly death rate for the UK (so you'd expect as many people to die at least partially of COVID-19 as of every other cause combined this year)... Making it around 50 million people killed if everyone got it (many won't) and if the world age distribution matched the UK. But the average person killed by COVID-19 is a lot closer to death. Even if you just go by age the actuarial tables put for remaining life years, those killed will average a fifth as many years as those killed by car accidents. Hmm Ok, maybe COVID-19 WILL cause more QALY loss after all. But it's certainly not entirely clearcut. Particularly if Imperial is right about >15% of Spain having already been infected (which would imply a MUCH lower death rate than that commonly reported given that Spain has only recorded 13 thousand deaths and has already passed their peak), in which case cars last year might still "win".
rpiguy 7y ago
Being rational? Yes. This is not smallpox. This isn’t even MERS from a mortality perspective. It’s real, rapid-spreading, and terrifying in how it kills those few who succumb, but people need balanced perspective. All they are getting is impending doom reported on television 24/7 and it’s nothing but. The future is bright. The 1918 Spanish Flu was followed by the roaring 20s!
- ben_w 7y ago
  At best, that’s “straw Vulcan” rationality. The emotional reaction of a crowd is an important part of any world model. At worst, without all the anxiety you’re opposing, too many people catch it at the same time and the death rate rises to match the hospitalisation rate. When that happens you’re not talking 75 million dead, you’re talking 375 million to 2.25 billion dead depending on which of the enormous range of hospitalisation estimates I look at.
  - concordDance 7y ago
    5% to 30% of the world dying? Yeah, that's bollocks. At least 80% of people don't even notice they have it (so the BBC has told me today). Only 5% of cases require ICU, let alone 5% of infections (and if Imperial modelling is right that number is far lower). ICU saves at most half of the people who go in based on CDC numbers. I have not seen any modelling by any source of even the slightest repute suggesting a 2 billion dead number is even possible. This alarmism makes people roll their eyes at all things COVID-19 and violate lockdowns, stick to the facts, they're bad enough.
    - ben_w 7y ago
      The ICU is fine (fsvo) if, and only if, everyone doesn’t get it all at the same time. """Mississippi currently has the highest COVID-19 hospitalization rate in the nation, at 31 percent, according to states’ health department data gathered by The COVID Tracking Project. """ - https://mississippitoday.org/2020/04/01/mississippi-has-nations-highest-covid-19-hospitalization-rate/ https://mississippitoday.org/2020/04/01/mississippi-has-nati...
      - rpiguy 7y ago
        The hospitalization rate is dependent on the denominator, how many people you test. Even NYC is doing just fine. Number of beds needed was overestimated, Cuomo himself said they have enough respirators, and the hospital ship has a handful of patients on it. The unnecessary panic diverts attention away from real problems like lack of PPE. We ordered GM to make respirators when what we really need, even in NYC, is PPE.
    - rpiguy 7y ago
      Have you noticed that the same statisticians who claim that 80% of people don’t know they have it fail to multiply the denominator when reporting statistics like mortality rate? For example here in NJ we have about 40000 confirmed and tested cases and 1000 deaths. The mortality rate for our state is about 2%. But if 80% of cases have no symptoms and are not tested, then the denominator should be 5x higher. The real mortality rate is .4% The same as a bad flu, but less than many flu seasons.

1.3 million people a year killed by car crashes, biased moderately towards the young (around 3 to 1 is comparing a 30 year old and a 60 year old). In contrast, COVID-19 has a fatality rate that looks roughly like the normal yearly death rate for the UK (so you'd expect as many people to die at least partially of COVID-19 as of every other cause combined this year)... Making it around 50 million people killed if everyone got it (many won't) and if the world age distribution matched the UK. But the average person killed by COVID-19 is a lot closer to death. Even if you just go by age the actuarial tables put for remaining life years, those killed will average a fifth as many years as those killed by car accidents. Hmm Ok, maybe COVID-19 WILL cause more QALY loss after all. But it's certainly not entirely clearcut. Particularly if Imperial is right about >15% of Spain having already been infected (which would imply a MUCH lower death rate than that commonly reported given that Spain has only recorded 13 thousand deaths and has already passed their peak), in which case cars last year might still "win".

rpiguy 7y ago

Being rational? Yes. This is not smallpox. This isn’t even MERS from a mortality perspective. It’s real, rapid-spreading, and terrifying in how it kills those few who succumb, but people need balanced perspective. All they are getting is impending doom reported on television 24/7 and it’s nothing but. The future is bright. The 1918 Spanish Flu was followed by the roaring 20s!

ben_w 7y ago
At best, that’s “straw Vulcan” rationality. The emotional reaction of a crowd is an important part of any world model. At worst, without all the anxiety you’re opposing, too many people catch it at the same time and the death rate rises to match the hospitalisation rate. When that happens you’re not talking 75 million dead, you’re talking 375 million to 2.25 billion dead depending on which of the enormous range of hospitalisation estimates I look at.
- concordDance 7y ago
  5% to 30% of the world dying? Yeah, that's bollocks. At least 80% of people don't even notice they have it (so the BBC has told me today). Only 5% of cases require ICU, let alone 5% of infections (and if Imperial modelling is right that number is far lower). ICU saves at most half of the people who go in based on CDC numbers. I have not seen any modelling by any source of even the slightest repute suggesting a 2 billion dead number is even possible. This alarmism makes people roll their eyes at all things COVID-19 and violate lockdowns, stick to the facts, they're bad enough.
  - ben_w 7y ago
    The ICU is fine (fsvo) if, and only if, everyone doesn’t get it all at the same time. """Mississippi currently has the highest COVID-19 hospitalization rate in the nation, at 31 percent, according to states’ health department data gathered by The COVID Tracking Project. """ - https://mississippitoday.org/2020/04/01/mississippi-has-nations-highest-covid-19-hospitalization-rate/ https://mississippitoday.org/2020/04/01/mississippi-has-nati...
    - rpiguy 7y ago
      The hospitalization rate is dependent on the denominator, how many people you test. Even NYC is doing just fine. Number of beds needed was overestimated, Cuomo himself said they have enough respirators, and the hospital ship has a handful of patients on it. The unnecessary panic diverts attention away from real problems like lack of PPE. We ordered GM to make respirators when what we really need, even in NYC, is PPE.
  - rpiguy 7y ago
    Have you noticed that the same statisticians who claim that 80% of people don’t know they have it fail to multiply the denominator when reporting statistics like mortality rate? For example here in NJ we have about 40000 confirmed and tested cases and 1000 deaths. The mortality rate for our state is about 2%. But if 80% of cases have no symptoms and are not tested, then the denominator should be 5x higher. The real mortality rate is .4% The same as a bad flu, but less than many flu seasons.