3 ms·
> as a higher percentage of people have or have had the virus, the growth rate decreases because there are less people available to infect That is what you wou
by aledalgrande 7y ago
> as a higher percentage of people have or have had the virus, the growth rate decreases because there are less people available to infect
That is what you would call "herd immunity" and no, current numbers of recovered patients are not even close to have it. It doesn't happen like magic like some politician wants to make people believe, and current estimations for COVID _herd immunity threshold_ are 29%-74% of the community [1]. Make a count of that on the US population.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity#Mechanics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity#Mechanics
- cortesoft 7y agoSure, but the comment I was replying to was suggesting that in 10 weeks, 300 million Americans would be infected... that is 91% of the population of the United States. We aren't going to hit that number.
- aledalgrande 7y agoThe growth is not going to be that much, sure, but because we slow it down with isolation, not because the immune people stop it from spreading.
- cortesoft 7y agoYes... but even if we did nothing, we are unlikely to hit 90% infected... 60 to 70% yes, but not 90%. I am not saying that is ok, or that we should just let it run its course... just that saying we will hit 90% infection is unrealistic.