The "official" 200k estimate (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20043752v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20043752

The "official" 200k estimate (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20043752v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20043752v...) assumes that China isn't lying about their numbers, that Italy's official numbers are correct (Even though the death rate in some places there is 5-10x higher than normal), that the US will be able to implement "lockdowns" as effectively as China did, and that the rate of decline of new cases of COVID-19 will match the rate of increase before the peak. I'm not sure any of those assumptions are warranted.