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The low 200k fatality estimate probably factors in the that the curve is flattening. The current estimate is that 300k people are infected in the US. If the nu

The low 200k fatality estimate probably factors in the that the curve is flattening. The current estimate is that 300k people are infected in the US. If the number of people infected by Covid-19 doubles every week, then in 10 weeks there will be 300 million infected in the US. Assuming 1% mortality puts you at 3 million dead.

cortesoft 7y ago
Doubling each week is not how it happens... as a higher percentage of people have or have had the virus, the growth rate decreases because there are less people available to infect. That is why infection percentage is an s shaped curve.
- itronitron 7y ago
  I already baked that in by starting with a low infection rate (2x per week instead of 2x every 3 days).
  - cortesoft 7y ago
    Yes, but 90% is an unrealistic infection number no matter what you start with. I think most experts had it at around 60-70% if we do nothing. That is not acceptable, either, given the fatality rate and the strain it would put on hospitals... but I think it is important we try to be accurate.
- analog31 7y ago
  It's an s shaped curve, but we don't know the upper magnitude of that curve. A large percentage of the population would have to get infected in order to run the COVID out of new recruits. If it tops out at 50% of the population, that's a disaster. Forcing the doubling rate to decrease short of hitting that point requires something else to happen. South Korea clearly did something other than running itself out of cannon fodder.
- aledalgrande 7y ago
  > as a higher percentage of people have or have had the virus, the growth rate decreases because there are less people available to infect That is what you would call "herd immunity" and no, current numbers of recovered patients are not even close to have it. It doesn't happen like magic like some politician wants to make people believe, and current estimations for COVID _herd immunity threshold_ are 29%-74% of the community [1]. Make a count of that on the US population. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity#Mechanics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity#Mechanics
  - cortesoft 7y ago
    Sure, but the comment I was replying to was suggesting that in 10 weeks, 300 million Americans would be infected... that is 91% of the population of the United States. We aren't going to hit that number.
    - aledalgrande 7y ago
      The growth is not going to be that much, sure, but because we slow it down with isolation, not because the immune people stop it from spreading.
      - cortesoft 7y ago
        Yes... but even if we did nothing, we are unlikely to hit 90% infected... 60 to 70% yes, but not 90%. I am not saying that is ok, or that we should just let it run its course... just that saying we will hit 90% infection is unrealistic.

cortesoft 7y ago

Doubling each week is not how it happens... as a higher percentage of people have or have had the virus, the growth rate decreases because there are less people available to infect. That is why infection percentage is an s shaped curve.

itronitron 7y ago
I already baked that in by starting with a low infection rate (2x per week instead of 2x every 3 days).
- cortesoft 7y ago
  Yes, but 90% is an unrealistic infection number no matter what you start with. I think most experts had it at around 60-70% if we do nothing. That is not acceptable, either, given the fatality rate and the strain it would put on hospitals... but I think it is important we try to be accurate.
analog31 7y ago
It's an s shaped curve, but we don't know the upper magnitude of that curve. A large percentage of the population would have to get infected in order to run the COVID out of new recruits. If it tops out at 50% of the population, that's a disaster. Forcing the doubling rate to decrease short of hitting that point requires something else to happen. South Korea clearly did something other than running itself out of cannon fodder.
aledalgrande 7y ago
> as a higher percentage of people have or have had the virus, the growth rate decreases because there are less people available to infect That is what you would call "herd immunity" and no, current numbers of recovered patients are not even close to have it. It doesn't happen like magic like some politician wants to make people believe, and current estimations for COVID _herd immunity threshold_ are 29%-74% of the community [1]. Make a count of that on the US population. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity#Mechanics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity#Mechanics
- cortesoft 7y ago
  Sure, but the comment I was replying to was suggesting that in 10 weeks, 300 million Americans would be infected... that is 91% of the population of the United States. We aren't going to hit that number.
  - aledalgrande 7y ago
    The growth is not going to be that much, sure, but because we slow it down with isolation, not because the immune people stop it from spreading.
    - cortesoft 7y ago
      Yes... but even if we did nothing, we are unlikely to hit 90% infected... 60 to 70% yes, but not 90%. I am not saying that is ok, or that we should just let it run its course... just that saying we will hit 90% infection is unrealistic.