This is a topic near and dear to Philip Tetlock's heart and something he pragmatically tries to address in books like Superforecasting and the Good Judgment Ope

This is a topic near and dear to Philip Tetlock's heart and something he pragmatically tries to address in books like Superforecasting and the Good Judgment Open project (which unfortunately seems to be becoming less open over time). It's also a preoccupation of his Twitter feed: https://twitter.com/PTetlock https://twitter.com/PTetlock On the subject of predictions and credibility, when the question "what's your brilliant startup idea" comes up, one of my half-joking responses: an ESPN site for CNBC and other cable news sites where talking heads spend all data talking about the prediction performance of other talking heads and making predictions about future prediction performance of those talking heads.