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What concerns me is the repeated mentioning of using training data from China, when we suspect the data they've released is inaccurate.
by Causality1 7y ago
What concerns me is the repeated mentioning of using training data from China, when we suspect the data they've released is inaccurate.
- X6S1x6Okd1st 7y agoCould you give a good source that discusses how the data is thought to be inaccurate and how it may be adjusted for?
- Causality1 7y agoAside from any and all statistical and analytical arguments made by people much smarter than me, the two things which cast the most doubt on their numbers are a massive drop in the number of registered cell and landline phones, and the fact they actively suppressed their SARS numbers in 2003. https://www.ft.com/content/efdec278-6d01-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f https://www.ft.com/content/efdec278-6d01-11ea-9bca-bf503995c... https://www.nytimes.com/2003/04/21/world/the-sars-epidemic-epidemic-china-admits-underreporting-its-sars-cases.html https://www.nytimes.com/2003/04/21/world/the-sars-epidemic-e... https://www.theepochtimes.com/the-closing-of-21-million-cell-phone-accounts-in-china-may-suggest-a-high-ccp-virus-death-toll_3281291.html https://www.theepochtimes.com/the-closing-of-21-million-cell...
- rspeare514 7y agoHey Causality, it's a valid concern. Most groups have been using China's reported deaths and cases as a baseline for the "shape" of the virus. We have modeled things with and without China / international data and are hoping to expose that soon.