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Infrastructure will begin to break down if we don't do regular maintenance. That means spare parts, which means manufacturing, which means raw materials. Food h

Infrastructure will begin to break down if we don't do regular maintenance. That means spare parts, which means manufacturing, which means raw materials. Food has a similar supply chain issue. Break the infrastructure enough that public sanitation stops working properly, and the Covid-19 deaths will be a rounding error in the excess death rate.

vkou 7y ago
Except we are still doing all those things. Maintenance[1] is happening. Factories are working. Food is being grown. Truckers are still hauling. Read the shut down orders issued by your state. Read the list of essential jobs listed in those orders. All of those things that you listed are essential jobs, that are still being done. If your factory makes masks, you're essential. If your factory makes screws that are used in a factory that makes masks, you're also essential. If your mine digs up iron ore that goes to a smelter, that goes to a factory that makes screws that are used in a factory that makes masks - you're also essential. Yes, this means that a lot of people are essential. But even halving the number of person-to-person interactions the average person has leads to a big reduction in transmissions. [1] I live in Seattle, three weeks into a shutdown, and just two days ago, power crews were doing preventative maintenance on the power line leading into my building.
- JoeAltmaier 7y ago
  Well, all the individual maintenance is being cancelled. Home maintenance; dentist appointments; tax accountant meetings; checkups; physical therapy. Heck even housecleaning, haircuts and sports. There will be a cost to all this - small business starts that fail across the board, loans and mortgages in default, cars repossessed, restaurants closing everywhere. Hard to get a job for most people with so many businesses closed, hard to get to a job with no car. We're all getting behind, it will be hard to catch up again, costs will go up after this is over, everyone will have more debt. It may take months or years for the hiccups to go away.
  - vkou 7y ago
    Home Depot is still open. Plumbers, electricians, AC guys, etc., are essential businesses. Your tax accountant can work with you over the phone. Cancelled checkups and dentist appointments are an unfortunate consequence of living with this virus. Lifting the lockdown on them may well result in more net damage to people's health at this point - but maybe not. This is one of the first things we need to think about re-opening. Haircuts are by no means essential, and I don't understand why you threw them into the list. The problems that arise from this aren't exactly the apocalypse porn of "There will be no food, no running water, and people will be dying in the streets, as civilization falls apart around them." > There will be a cost to all this - small business starts that fail across the board, loans and mortgages in default, cars repossessed, restaurants closing everywhere. This kind of economic cost is going to be paid anyways, regardless of whether we take the road of "Tens of thousands of deaths, more lockdown" or "Millions of deaths, no lockdown". People just aren't going to consume as normal in the middle of a raging pandemic. Small businesses will be falling apart, as their owner-operators get sick, and/or die. Jobs will be lost, because not enough people are crazy enough to be booking a vacation in the middle of this.
    - JoeAltmaier 7y ago
      No doubt its necessary. But it comes with a cost, which I think we agree on. And it will be a surprisingly high cost, for all sorts of unexpected reasons. Possibly resulting in a recession.

vkou 7y ago

Except we are still doing all those things. Maintenance[1] is happening. Factories are working. Food is being grown. Truckers are still hauling. Read the shut down orders issued by your state. Read the list of essential jobs listed in those orders. All of those things that you listed are essential jobs, that are still being done. If your factory makes masks, you're essential. If your factory makes screws that are used in a factory that makes masks, you're also essential. If your mine digs up iron ore that goes to a smelter, that goes to a factory that makes screws that are used in a factory that makes masks - you're also essential. Yes, this means that a lot of people are essential. But even halving the number of person-to-person interactions the average person has leads to a big reduction in transmissions. [1] I live in Seattle, three weeks into a shutdown, and just two days ago, power crews were doing preventative maintenance on the power line leading into my building.

JoeAltmaier 7y ago
Well, all the individual maintenance is being cancelled. Home maintenance; dentist appointments; tax accountant meetings; checkups; physical therapy. Heck even housecleaning, haircuts and sports. There will be a cost to all this - small business starts that fail across the board, loans and mortgages in default, cars repossessed, restaurants closing everywhere. Hard to get a job for most people with so many businesses closed, hard to get to a job with no car. We're all getting behind, it will be hard to catch up again, costs will go up after this is over, everyone will have more debt. It may take months or years for the hiccups to go away.
- vkou 7y ago
  Home Depot is still open. Plumbers, electricians, AC guys, etc., are essential businesses. Your tax accountant can work with you over the phone. Cancelled checkups and dentist appointments are an unfortunate consequence of living with this virus. Lifting the lockdown on them may well result in more net damage to people's health at this point - but maybe not. This is one of the first things we need to think about re-opening. Haircuts are by no means essential, and I don't understand why you threw them into the list. The problems that arise from this aren't exactly the apocalypse porn of "There will be no food, no running water, and people will be dying in the streets, as civilization falls apart around them." > There will be a cost to all this - small business starts that fail across the board, loans and mortgages in default, cars repossessed, restaurants closing everywhere. This kind of economic cost is going to be paid anyways, regardless of whether we take the road of "Tens of thousands of deaths, more lockdown" or "Millions of deaths, no lockdown". People just aren't going to consume as normal in the middle of a raging pandemic. Small businesses will be falling apart, as their owner-operators get sick, and/or die. Jobs will be lost, because not enough people are crazy enough to be booking a vacation in the middle of this.
  - JoeAltmaier 7y ago
    No doubt its necessary. But it comes with a cost, which I think we agree on. And it will be a surprisingly high cost, for all sorts of unexpected reasons. Possibly resulting in a recession.