6 ms·

we are seeing a lot more dead in heavily affected regions. and there is no statistics about why they died... Personally I think this is quite worrying with a lo

by fock 7y ago

we are seeing a lot more dead in heavily affected regions. and there is no statistics about why they died... Personally I think this is quite worrying with a lot of people now thinking we put masks on and then can go back to work. If this is indeed having serious side effects, we need to eradicate this. Meaning total lockdown except absolute necessities (e.g. ask: will people die of physical reasons if this service is out for a week) worldwide, implemented yesterday.

Bombthecat 7y ago
Won't happen. We can't go in lockdown for 2 or three years..
- JoeAltmaier 7y ago
  Probably not for even another month. Because it will stop working, for practical reasons. People will have to go back to work, or be evicted. Go out for necessities, shopping around to find any, increasing their exposure instead of decreasing it. Go job interviewing. All sorts of fallout, which actually increases travel and potential infection, instead of reducing it. Its easy for us middle-class folks to say "Just stay at home and eat cake!" This whole lockdown thing is divided on class lines. Just look in the window at the McD's drive-thru. Those folks don't have the luxury of staying home.
  - catalogia 7y ago
    The people calling the shots are all firmly on one side of this class divide. Will there be the political willpower to break quarantine when virtually all of our politicians from city councils all the way up to national leaders are financially secure and, more often than not, old enough to be particularly at risk?
  - jfnixon 7y ago
    Infrastructure will begin to break down if we don't do regular maintenance. That means spare parts, which means manufacturing, which means raw materials. Food has a similar supply chain issue. Break the infrastructure enough that public sanitation stops working properly, and the Covid-19 deaths will be a rounding error in the excess death rate.
    - vkou 7y ago
      Except we are still doing all those things. Maintenance[1] is happening. Factories are working. Food is being grown. Truckers are still hauling. Read the shut down orders issued by your state. Read the list of essential jobs listed in those orders. All of those things that you listed are essential jobs, that are still being done. If your factory makes masks, you're essential. If your factory makes screws that are used in a factory that makes masks, you're also essential. If your mine digs up iron ore that goes to a smelter, that goes to a factory that makes screws that are used in a factory that makes masks - you're also essential. Yes, this means that a lot of people are essential. But even halving the number of person-to-person interactions the average person has leads to a big reduction in transmissions. [1] I live in Seattle, three weeks into a shutdown, and just two days ago, power crews were doing preventative maintenance on the power line leading into my building.
      - JoeAltmaier 7y ago
        Well, all the individual maintenance is being cancelled. Home maintenance; dentist appointments; tax accountant meetings; checkups; physical therapy. Heck even housecleaning, haircuts and sports. There will be a cost to all this - small business starts that fail across the board, loans and mortgages in default, cars repossessed, restaurants closing everywhere. Hard to get a job for most people with so many businesses closed, hard to get to a job with no car. We're all getting behind, it will be hard to catch up again, costs will go up after this is over, everyone will have more debt. It may take months or years for the hiccups to go away.
        vkou 7y ago
        Home Depot is still open. Plumbers, electricians, AC guys, etc., are essential businesses. Your tax accountant can work with you over the phone. Cancelled checkups and dentist appointments are an unfortunate consequence of living with this virus. Lifting the lockdown on them may well result in more net damage to people's health at this point - but maybe not. This is one of the first things we need to think about re-opening. Haircuts are by no means essential, and I don't understand why you threw them into the list. The problems that arise from this aren't exactly the apocalypse porn of "There will be no food, no running water, and people will be dying in the streets, as civilization falls apart around them." > There will be a cost to all this - small business starts that fail across the board, loans and mortgages in default, cars repossessed, restaurants closing everywhere. This kind of economic cost is going to be paid anyways, regardless of whether we take the road of "Tens of thousands of deaths, more lockdown" or "Millions of deaths, no lockdown". People just aren't going to consume as normal in the middle of a raging pandemic. Small businesses will be falling apart, as their owner-operators get sick, and/or die. Jobs will be lost, because not enough people are crazy enough to be booking a vacation in the middle of this.
  - jcadam 7y ago
    Right. What I'm really hoping is that those of us who were going into an office to do a job that everyone involved fully well knew could be done from home (e.g., software dev) won't be forced back into close-quarters again just because a "safe-at-home" order has been lifted (besides, I have asthma and my wife has hypertension). Until we beat this thing (which probably means a vaccine being widely-available, so... another year at least), any job that can be done remotely, should absolutely be done remotely. And I, for one, won't be setting foot in a cafe or restaurant or going to a conference until this is all over. And my kids won't be going back to school either. Guess we're homeschooling now.
    - fock 7y ago
      exactly my thoughts. yet in my country some especially non-essential people are still being forced into their offices. their only job is to increase future dividends. which, at this point, is a longshot to be civil...
- ludamad 7y ago
  This is the most heart wrenching thing - total local victory is only buying time
  - war1025 7y ago
    That's all any of this has ever been about, whether or not people want to admit it to themselves. We are trying to hold the fort until reinforcements (better treatments, vaccines, etc) arrive.
    - JumpCrisscross 7y ago
      > We are trying to hold the fort until reinforcements (better treatments, vaccines, etc) We may also be developing herd immunity, if the previously-infected are less likely to be reinfected. If that’s the case, those presenting antibodies could go back to a normal existence faster.
giardini 7y ago
Does this mean that, for one brief shining moment, we can live without the drone of leaf blowers?
- mellavora 7y ago
  that would be heaven

by fock 7y ago

Bombthecat 7y ago

Won't happen. We can't go in lockdown for 2 or three years..

JoeAltmaier 7y ago
Probably not for even another month. Because it will stop working, for practical reasons. People will have to go back to work, or be evicted. Go out for necessities, shopping around to find any, increasing their exposure instead of decreasing it. Go job interviewing. All sorts of fallout, which actually increases travel and potential infection, instead of reducing it. Its easy for us middle-class folks to say "Just stay at home and eat cake!" This whole lockdown thing is divided on class lines. Just look in the window at the McD's drive-thru. Those folks don't have the luxury of staying home.
- catalogia 7y ago
  The people calling the shots are all firmly on one side of this class divide. Will there be the political willpower to break quarantine when virtually all of our politicians from city councils all the way up to national leaders are financially secure and, more often than not, old enough to be particularly at risk?
- jfnixon 7y ago
  Infrastructure will begin to break down if we don't do regular maintenance. That means spare parts, which means manufacturing, which means raw materials. Food has a similar supply chain issue. Break the infrastructure enough that public sanitation stops working properly, and the Covid-19 deaths will be a rounding error in the excess death rate.
  - vkou 7y ago
    Except we are still doing all those things. Maintenance[1] is happening. Factories are working. Food is being grown. Truckers are still hauling. Read the shut down orders issued by your state. Read the list of essential jobs listed in those orders. All of those things that you listed are essential jobs, that are still being done. If your factory makes masks, you're essential. If your factory makes screws that are used in a factory that makes masks, you're also essential. If your mine digs up iron ore that goes to a smelter, that goes to a factory that makes screws that are used in a factory that makes masks - you're also essential. Yes, this means that a lot of people are essential. But even halving the number of person-to-person interactions the average person has leads to a big reduction in transmissions. [1] I live in Seattle, three weeks into a shutdown, and just two days ago, power crews were doing preventative maintenance on the power line leading into my building.
    - JoeAltmaier 7y ago
      Well, all the individual maintenance is being cancelled. Home maintenance; dentist appointments; tax accountant meetings; checkups; physical therapy. Heck even housecleaning, haircuts and sports. There will be a cost to all this - small business starts that fail across the board, loans and mortgages in default, cars repossessed, restaurants closing everywhere. Hard to get a job for most people with so many businesses closed, hard to get to a job with no car. We're all getting behind, it will be hard to catch up again, costs will go up after this is over, everyone will have more debt. It may take months or years for the hiccups to go away.
      - vkou 7y ago
        Home Depot is still open. Plumbers, electricians, AC guys, etc., are essential businesses. Your tax accountant can work with you over the phone. Cancelled checkups and dentist appointments are an unfortunate consequence of living with this virus. Lifting the lockdown on them may well result in more net damage to people's health at this point - but maybe not. This is one of the first things we need to think about re-opening. Haircuts are by no means essential, and I don't understand why you threw them into the list. The problems that arise from this aren't exactly the apocalypse porn of "There will be no food, no running water, and people will be dying in the streets, as civilization falls apart around them." > There will be a cost to all this - small business starts that fail across the board, loans and mortgages in default, cars repossessed, restaurants closing everywhere. This kind of economic cost is going to be paid anyways, regardless of whether we take the road of "Tens of thousands of deaths, more lockdown" or "Millions of deaths, no lockdown". People just aren't going to consume as normal in the middle of a raging pandemic. Small businesses will be falling apart, as their owner-operators get sick, and/or die. Jobs will be lost, because not enough people are crazy enough to be booking a vacation in the middle of this.
- jcadam 7y ago
  Right. What I'm really hoping is that those of us who were going into an office to do a job that everyone involved fully well knew could be done from home (e.g., software dev) won't be forced back into close-quarters again just because a "safe-at-home" order has been lifted (besides, I have asthma and my wife has hypertension). Until we beat this thing (which probably means a vaccine being widely-available, so... another year at least), any job that can be done remotely, should absolutely be done remotely. And I, for one, won't be setting foot in a cafe or restaurant or going to a conference until this is all over. And my kids won't be going back to school either. Guess we're homeschooling now.
  - fock 7y ago
    exactly my thoughts. yet in my country some especially non-essential people are still being forced into their offices. their only job is to increase future dividends. which, at this point, is a longshot to be civil...
ludamad 7y ago
This is the most heart wrenching thing - total local victory is only buying time
- war1025 7y ago
  That's all any of this has ever been about, whether or not people want to admit it to themselves. We are trying to hold the fort until reinforcements (better treatments, vaccines, etc) arrive.
  - JumpCrisscross 7y ago
    > We are trying to hold the fort until reinforcements (better treatments, vaccines, etc) We may also be developing herd immunity, if the previously-infected are less likely to be reinfected. If that’s the case, those presenting antibodies could go back to a normal existence faster.

giardini 7y ago

Does this mean that, for one brief shining moment, we can live without the drone of leaf blowers?

mellavora 7y ago
that would be heaven