6 ms·

Show HN: Calculator of personal risk due to Covid-19

17 points by mathdev 6y ago

oski 6y ago
Question to the author (mathdev?): does this calculator take into account: 1) the effect of viral load/dose on outcome/severity 2) current data on rates of asymptomatic carriers?
- mathdev 6y ago
  1) No. I don't imagine there are any reliable statistics available on that, and how could you estimate your dose? 2) Yes, this was taken into account by the study, data from which the algorithm uses.
mathdev 6y ago
I made this tool after seeing much confusion, even on HN, about the risks for an individual posed by COVID-19. On the results page, click the question marks for detailed sources and methodology. I will appreciate constructive feedback.
- tosh 6y ago
  do you have an overview on how you did the weighing of various parameters?
  - mathdev 6y ago
    See the modals that display after clicking the question marks for details.
mr_gibbins 6y ago
It's interesting, but any reason why the age limit is 89? And when I adjust for co-morbidities (presumably adding them) my chance of hospitalisation and/or death actually decreases?
- mathdev 6y ago
  There does not seem to be enough reliable data for the higher age brackets. That should happen if you have no pre-existing conditions - then the adjustment decreases the probabilities.
- logicchains 6y ago
  >And when I adjust for co-morbidities (presumably adding them) It asks if you have any pre-existing health conditions. If you state no for this, presumably it means no co-morbidities, so your risk of death is lower than the average.
steelframe 6y ago
What information are you logging? IP addresses and responses? What is your data retention policy? Privacy policy? Who will you be sharing the information you collect with? What if you tell someone they have low odds of death, and then they take more risks as a result of what you told them? If they were to end up dying of COVID-19 because they are induced to take more risks, do you think you will have exposed yourself to any legal liability?
- jksmith 6y ago
  Induced? If that's the case, so much for being personally responsible these days.
- mathdev 6y ago
  I don't log or store anything, except for what is logged by Google Analytics. > If they were to end up dying of COVID-19 because they are induced to take more risks, do you think you will have exposed yourself to any legal liability? If that were the case, publishing any actuarial tables should lead to legal liability (and it definitely doesn't, at least where I am from).
- throwaway98797 6y ago
  Do you always live in fear?
gnrlst 6y ago
I suggest having a repository where people can contribute to the algorithm (with a requirement being to back up any proposed modification with a scientific source). Also interesting that you put the non-covid risk as well, really brings things into perspective. In my age bracket I have a 0.18% of dying in the next 12 months, but only 0.017% from covid.
- mathdev 6y ago
  That's a neat idea, though not sure if I will have the time.
kwertzzz 6y ago
Why are you sending the data (including medical conditions) to Facebook? https://www.facebook.com/v6.0/plugins/like.php?action=like&app_id=&channel=https%3A%2F%2Fstaticxx.facebook.com%2Fconnect%2Fxd_arbiter.php%3Fversion%3D46%23cb%3Df17d6a34f1f5aae%26domain%3Dwww.covidodds.com%26origin%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.covidodds.com%252Ff2adc5c9345f4d6%26relation%3Dparent.parent&container_width=4&href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.covidodds.com%2F50-years-old-female-with-cardiovascular_disease&layout=button&locale=en_GB&sdk=joey&share=true&size=large https://www.facebook.com/v6.0/plugins/like.php?action=like&a...
- mathdev 6y ago
  Fixed to only include the base URL.
jdks82ksk 6y ago
Questions. How are you calculating risk? What do the risk scores mean? How accurate are they? What responsibility do you bear if your tool is wrong and someone gets hurt? I am not saying all this to be a wet blanket, but because these are real ethical and legal issues that must be considered when making claims about healthcare related products. Otherwise I think this is a cool idea and nifty piece of app building. My personal advice: consider reframing this as something other than a “personal risk calculator”. Either that or add a lot of explanations and disclaimers.
- mathdev 6y ago
  I am reluctant to accept the American/Western mentality in these things, but I have added some disclaimers. Thanks.
okapii 6y ago
Hah this outputs the same results no matter which precondition boxes you tick.
- mathdev 6y ago
  Yeah, it only takes into account whether one has preconditions or not, at the moment. The plan was to produce more detailed calculations, but it is difficult.
  - okapii 6y ago
    Well this is highly misleading then and pretty irresponsible. People could have multiple severe issues and yet this states that there is little risk.
    - mathdev 6y ago
      No. First, having multiple conditions doesn’t qualitatively change the result. Second, the figure shown by default is not adjusted for comorbidities and the adjustment is clearly marked as experimental. You are all just crazy with the panic and that’s it.

17 points by mathdev 6y ago

oski 6y ago

Question to the author (mathdev?): does this calculator take into account: 1) the effect of viral load/dose on outcome/severity 2) current data on rates of asymptomatic carriers?

mathdev 6y ago
1) No. I don't imagine there are any reliable statistics available on that, and how could you estimate your dose? 2) Yes, this was taken into account by the study, data from which the algorithm uses.

mathdev 6y ago

I made this tool after seeing much confusion, even on HN, about the risks for an individual posed by COVID-19. On the results page, click the question marks for detailed sources and methodology. I will appreciate constructive feedback.

tosh 6y ago
do you have an overview on how you did the weighing of various parameters?
- mathdev 6y ago
  See the modals that display after clicking the question marks for details.

mr_gibbins 6y ago

It's interesting, but any reason why the age limit is 89? And when I adjust for co-morbidities (presumably adding them) my chance of hospitalisation and/or death actually decreases?

mathdev 6y ago
There does not seem to be enough reliable data for the higher age brackets. That should happen if you have no pre-existing conditions - then the adjustment decreases the probabilities.
logicchains 6y ago
>And when I adjust for co-morbidities (presumably adding them) It asks if you have any pre-existing health conditions. If you state no for this, presumably it means no co-morbidities, so your risk of death is lower than the average.

steelframe 6y ago

What information are you logging? IP addresses and responses? What is your data retention policy? Privacy policy? Who will you be sharing the information you collect with? What if you tell someone they have low odds of death, and then they take more risks as a result of what you told them? If they were to end up dying of COVID-19 because they are induced to take more risks, do you think you will have exposed yourself to any legal liability?

jksmith 6y ago
Induced? If that's the case, so much for being personally responsible these days.
mathdev 6y ago
I don't log or store anything, except for what is logged by Google Analytics. > If they were to end up dying of COVID-19 because they are induced to take more risks, do you think you will have exposed yourself to any legal liability? If that were the case, publishing any actuarial tables should lead to legal liability (and it definitely doesn't, at least where I am from).
throwaway98797 6y ago
Do you always live in fear?

gnrlst 6y ago

I suggest having a repository where people can contribute to the algorithm (with a requirement being to back up any proposed modification with a scientific source). Also interesting that you put the non-covid risk as well, really brings things into perspective. In my age bracket I have a 0.18% of dying in the next 12 months, but only 0.017% from covid.

mathdev 6y ago
That's a neat idea, though not sure if I will have the time.

kwertzzz 6y ago

Why are you sending the data (including medical conditions) to Facebook? https://www.facebook.com/v6.0/plugins/like.php?action=like&app_id=&channel=https%3A%2F%2Fstaticxx.facebook.com%2Fconnect%2Fxd_arbiter.php%3Fversion%3D46%23cb%3Df17d6a34f1f5aae%26domain%3Dwww.covidodds.com%26origin%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.covidodds.com%252Ff2adc5c9345f4d6%26relation%3Dparent.parent&container_width=4&href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.covidodds.com%2F50-years-old-female-with-cardiovascular_disease&layout=button&locale=en_GB&sdk=joey&share=true&size=large https://www.facebook.com/v6.0/plugins/like.php?action=like&a...

mathdev 6y ago
Fixed to only include the base URL.

jdks82ksk 6y ago

Questions. How are you calculating risk? What do the risk scores mean? How accurate are they? What responsibility do you bear if your tool is wrong and someone gets hurt? I am not saying all this to be a wet blanket, but because these are real ethical and legal issues that must be considered when making claims about healthcare related products. Otherwise I think this is a cool idea and nifty piece of app building. My personal advice: consider reframing this as something other than a “personal risk calculator”. Either that or add a lot of explanations and disclaimers.

mathdev 6y ago
I am reluctant to accept the American/Western mentality in these things, but I have added some disclaimers. Thanks.

okapii 6y ago

Hah this outputs the same results no matter which precondition boxes you tick.

mathdev 6y ago
Yeah, it only takes into account whether one has preconditions or not, at the moment. The plan was to produce more detailed calculations, but it is difficult.
- okapii 6y ago
  Well this is highly misleading then and pretty irresponsible. People could have multiple severe issues and yet this states that there is little risk.
  - mathdev 6y ago
    No. First, having multiple conditions doesn’t qualitatively change the result. Second, the figure shown by default is not adjusted for comorbidities and the adjustment is clearly marked as experimental. You are all just crazy with the panic and that’s it.