3 ms·

> Tell me, why is it that India has this so under control ... First, tell us why you claim India has this 'under control'? According to John Hopkins stats[1]

by Jedd 7y ago

> Tell me, why is it that India has this so under control ... First, tell us why you claim India has this 'under control'? According to John Hopkins stats[1] (as of 2020-04-06:2200+11) shows India (population 1,600m) with confirmed case count of 4,300. Meanwhile Australia, who's been relatively slow to trace and test, population 25m, with confirmed case count of 5,800 It's possible these numbers reflect realities, but it's a hard sell. > ... and are using Chloroquine almost exclusively for the treatment? This is going to need some even better citations, especially if the implied claim is that they're almost exclusively using Chloroquine for treatment with great success. [1] https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594...

jamisteven 7y ago
1. India has a death rate of 2.22 per million people, this is one of the lowest rates of any country in the globe. 2. Not only are they using Chloroquine but their government is so confident in the drug that as of yesterday wont allow its export to other countries.
- Jedd 7y ago
  > 1. India has a death rate of 2.22 per million people, this is one of the lowest rates of any country in the globe. 2. Not only are they using Chloroquine but their government is so confident in the drug that as of yesterday wont allow its export to other countries. I don't believe either of those points is valid or compelling. 'Death rate' ... is a highly ambiguous term. Case Fatality Rate (or equivalent) is the measure of mortality (attributed to the disease) per identified case. Obviously this metric can be easily hacked -- test fewer people so you have fewer confirmed cases. Infection Fatality Rate (or equivalent) is the measure of people we estimate had COVID-19 and died from it, even if they weren't confirmed via testing. In countries that have been very slow to test, this number is expected to be relatively high, though not as frequently reported on. It's very unlikely that IFR would vary significantly, absent significant medical intervention, between races / cultures / locations / etc. EDIT: Citing The Atlantic last month: "For one, India is still not testing enough people, having conducted the fewest number of tests of any country with confirmed cases of the coronavirus, at just 10.5 per million residents (South Korea, by contrast, has conducted more than 6,000 tests per million residents). " As to the Indian government's confidence being high ... there's no shortage of political hubris going around, and Modi's not immune. I note that at the end of March "a $22.6bn economic stimulus plan [...] to provide direct cash transfers and food handouts to India's poor." This does not sound like something that anyone in India believes is 'under control'. [1] https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/03/india-coronavirus-covid19-narendra-modi/608896/ https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/03/in...

by Jedd 7y ago

jamisteven 7y ago

1. India has a death rate of 2.22 per million people, this is one of the lowest rates of any country in the globe. 2. Not only are they using Chloroquine but their government is so confident in the drug that as of yesterday wont allow its export to other countries.

Jedd 7y ago
> 1. India has a death rate of 2.22 per million people, this is one of the lowest rates of any country in the globe. 2. Not only are they using Chloroquine but their government is so confident in the drug that as of yesterday wont allow its export to other countries. I don't believe either of those points is valid or compelling. 'Death rate' ... is a highly ambiguous term. Case Fatality Rate (or equivalent) is the measure of mortality (attributed to the disease) per identified case. Obviously this metric can be easily hacked -- test fewer people so you have fewer confirmed cases. Infection Fatality Rate (or equivalent) is the measure of people we estimate had COVID-19 and died from it, even if they weren't confirmed via testing. In countries that have been very slow to test, this number is expected to be relatively high, though not as frequently reported on. It's very unlikely that IFR would vary significantly, absent significant medical intervention, between races / cultures / locations / etc. EDIT: Citing The Atlantic last month: "For one, India is still not testing enough people, having conducted the fewest number of tests of any country with confirmed cases of the coronavirus, at just 10.5 per million residents (South Korea, by contrast, has conducted more than 6,000 tests per million residents). " As to the Indian government's confidence being high ... there's no shortage of political hubris going around, and Modi's not immune. I note that at the end of March "a $22.6bn economic stimulus plan [...] to provide direct cash transfers and food handouts to India's poor." This does not sound like something that anyone in India believes is 'under control'. [1] https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/03/india-coronavirus-covid19-narendra-modi/608896/ https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/03/in...