3 ms·
> [1, 2, 4, 8] is exponential and [1, 3, 5, 7] is linear. You can't say just from 4 data points. Real data is noisy. Imagine each number is ±1.
by ash 7y ago
> [1, 2, 4, 8] is exponential and [1, 3, 5, 7] is linear.
You can't say just from 4 data points. Real data is noisy. Imagine each number is ±1.
- nullc 7y agoTo be fair, people-- even experts (checkout the first 538 survey of experts) and authorities-- have happily pretended covid19's behavior was linear even when the linear fit was many sigma away from the measurements... I agree that it's worthwhile intuition in many cases, but really not here and even people equipt with both the data and the mathematical expertise to use it there have also made many bad calls on this.