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He's wrong. More people being asymptomatic is not a cause for reacting less strictly, which is the view being promoted. If more people are asymptomatic, that's

by Lewton 7y ago

He's wrong. More people being asymptomatic is not a cause for reacting less strictly, which is the view being promoted. If more people are asymptomatic, that's great news, but it does not impact how severely you should lockdown society as the DDOS'ing of the health sector is still clearly a problem to avoid looking at france, spain and italy. It only means that you'll be able to end the lockdown sooner than expected

lazyjones 7y ago
We'll see how Sweden fares in the end. I'm not promoting their methods of dealing with the pandemic, but I believe the different health systems affect the outcome more. Italy has around 1/3 to 1/4 the hospital beds per capita of Austria, Germany, South Korea but more than Sweden and the USA.
- Lewton 7y ago
  Comparing Denmark vs Sweden, it looks like we're beginning to see the difference in outcome on the death toll and hospitalization rates. Denmarks death toll is stabilizing (or at the very least only growing linearly) and the amount of people in hospitals with covid-19 has been stable for a week [0] (and no not because the hospitals are packed) While Sweden is seemingly continuing the exponential trend in both over the past 4-5 days [0] https://www.sst.dk/da/corona/tal-og-overvaagning https://www.sst.dk/da/corona/tal-og-overvaagning the chart say "Indlagte patienter med bekræftet COVID-19 pr. dag "
  - lazyjones 7y ago
    It may be a bit early to say. Social distancing delays the infections. It's possible that it kills the virus, but unlikely, so people will be infected and possibly die later if they aren't immune already. Sweden is not able to stop infections at all, their health system is guaranteed to be overwhelmed, but survivors will most likely be immune and it will be over quickly, one way or another, when everyone has been exposed to the virus.
    - Lewton 7y ago
      Do you think they’ll have the stomach to continue with the plan once their hospitals are overwhelmed? I’m extremely skeptical they won’t eventually have to lock down harder than Denmark
      - lazyjones 7y ago
        I am not sure - there's still a chance that we won't reach the claimed 50-70% infections for some unknown reason, like the weather or some people being more resistant. Our (Austrian) chancellor said recently (~2 weeks ago) that he expects all health systems in the EU to become overwhelmed, though currently the outlook seems much better (even Italy has been sounding more optimistic lately). I don't know what to conclude from this other than that the worst possible outcome might not be as dramatic as previously thought, so Sweden might just pull through with it.

by Lewton 7y ago

lazyjones 7y ago

We'll see how Sweden fares in the end. I'm not promoting their methods of dealing with the pandemic, but I believe the different health systems affect the outcome more. Italy has around 1/3 to 1/4 the hospital beds per capita of Austria, Germany, South Korea but more than Sweden and the USA.

Lewton 7y ago
Comparing Denmark vs Sweden, it looks like we're beginning to see the difference in outcome on the death toll and hospitalization rates. Denmarks death toll is stabilizing (or at the very least only growing linearly) and the amount of people in hospitals with covid-19 has been stable for a week [0] (and no not because the hospitals are packed) While Sweden is seemingly continuing the exponential trend in both over the past 4-5 days [0] https://www.sst.dk/da/corona/tal-og-overvaagning https://www.sst.dk/da/corona/tal-og-overvaagning the chart say "Indlagte patienter med bekræftet COVID-19 pr. dag "
- lazyjones 7y ago
  It may be a bit early to say. Social distancing delays the infections. It's possible that it kills the virus, but unlikely, so people will be infected and possibly die later if they aren't immune already. Sweden is not able to stop infections at all, their health system is guaranteed to be overwhelmed, but survivors will most likely be immune and it will be over quickly, one way or another, when everyone has been exposed to the virus.
  - Lewton 7y ago
    Do you think they’ll have the stomach to continue with the plan once their hospitals are overwhelmed? I’m extremely skeptical they won’t eventually have to lock down harder than Denmark
    - lazyjones 7y ago
      I am not sure - there's still a chance that we won't reach the claimed 50-70% infections for some unknown reason, like the weather or some people being more resistant. Our (Austrian) chancellor said recently (~2 weeks ago) that he expects all health systems in the EU to become overwhelmed, though currently the outlook seems much better (even Italy has been sounding more optimistic lately). I don't know what to conclude from this other than that the worst possible outcome might not be as dramatic as previously thought, so Sweden might just pull through with it.