A pretty good model is the one I've found in this random Google Sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PqMVPU0VYcDWrUnDh1CsGYr_A7Zk3iZco77X-vToS9Q/edit

A pretty good model is the one I've found in this random Google Sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PqMVPU0VYcDWrUnDh1CsGYr_A7Zk3iZco77X-vToS9Q/edit#gid=373593023 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PqMVPU0VYcDWrUnDh1Cs... Basically, it uses the fact that mean time from contagion to death is 17,3 days. For France, it gives reasonably accurate predictions. Best than almost any other model I've seen, in fact.