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It could only be exponential if the population was infinite. It has to be more of a bell curve, because as infection grows, there are fewer hosts to infect, and
by justanotherc 7y ago
It could only be exponential if the population was infinite. It has to be more of a bell curve, because as infection grows, there are fewer hosts to infect, and therefore growth would start to decline.
- strenholme 7y agoEven in places where 0.05% of the population has confirmed cases of the virus, I’m seeing the curve flatten. Whether that’s from quarantine of from the virus hitting its limit, I can not say. But the curve is flattening.
- justanotherc 7y agoYes that's good news. However when you say the curve is flattening, I believe you mean we have reached peak daily new cases, meaning the number of new cases we see is going to start declining from here. Collectively many people seem to be referring to that as "curve flattening", but my understanding is that flattening the curve means slowing the growth rate overall, so that it takes us longer to reach peak daily new cases. It is not intended to indicate a particular point along the x axis. In fact if we are actually flattening the curve, it will take us LONGER to reach our peak. Also, its difficult to measure whether we have been successful or not, because the only thing we have to measure against would be hypothetical worse case scenarios.