I'd like to point out that we _still_ don't know if that "high R0" model was right or not. And we won't know that until we randomly test a sufficiently large ra

I'd like to point out that we _still_ don't know if that "high R0" model was right or not. And we won't know that until we randomly test a sufficiently large random sample of the UK population for antibodies. They imposed containment _very_ late, and they go to pubs _all the time_. It is not implausible that the majority of their population already had COVID19 without even knowing what it was. What we do know is that "doomsday style" models from IHME that just last week were predicting 50K beds needed in NY are off by a factor of 3-4, and hospitalization are starting to flatten out already. You can guess the direction they were wrong in. And before you start an uninformed argument, yes, these models assume the current isolation measures. In the meanwhile NY hoarded the ventilators and medical supplies because it anticipated this prediction to be true. To be clear, I don't blame NY - they used the best information they had, which turned out to be bullshit. Better be safe than sorry. These are not harmless errors. When this is over, someone should study these fiascos and estimate the death toll just from bad models alone. https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1246465515704463360 https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1246465515704463360