3 ms·

I agree with this - but I do think it should be clear that the model is from outside the mainstream. Not to dismiss it but to clarify its status. Check out the

I agree with this - but I do think it should be clear that the model is from outside the mainstream. Not to dismiss it but to clarify its status. Check out the New Yorker piece I link to in the article - it's quite shocking the misinformation that's out there.

garmaine 7y ago
Well, we could have benefited greatly from the mainstream media and politicians taking the outside predictions seriously at the beginning of this crisis. Instead we had to wait a month for the Imperial College London to say the same exact thing before certain leaders got their heads out of the sand. Likewise now with hydroxychloroquine--if you listen to the epidemiologists all you'd hear is how it's an UNPROVEN drug. What we need instead is coverage of sample sizes, p values, bayesian predictions of effectiveness (in the absence of controlled studies) and serious modeling of the number of ICU beds and ventilators required with and without various levels of treatment, from emergency care to prophylactic use. The epidemiologists have their head in the sand and think we can just wait 6 months for a proper set of randomized trials. It's the less attached data modelers you need to turn to get predictions that are useful for effective policy choices.
- martingoodson 7y ago
  That's not really a fair representation. (Harvard epidemiologist) Marc Lipsitch raised the alarm back in February: "it's likely we'll see a global pandemic" of coronavirus, with 40 to 70 percent of the world's population likely to be infected this year." https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/482794-officials-say-the-cdc-is-preparing-for https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-c...
thu2111 7y ago
I do think it should be clear that the model is from outside the mainstream Which model? Your article mostly dwells on the Oxford model in the FT which is as mainstream as it gets. The Daily Mail article is about a prediction by an Imperial academic. There doesn't appear to be any "mainstream" in epidemiology. This kind of false-consensus argument is one I've seen before and frankly it undermines people's respect in both academic and journalism. How exactly is the "mainstream" established, in your mind? And don't talk about vague, easily manipulated non-metrics like reputation. Mainstream models should come from a single thing: success. Your insistence on rigid academic segmentation is the very thing that makes academia brittle and riven with non-replicable papers. You know which kind of modellers I respect the most? Actuaries. They have skin in the game. They don't try to predict pandemics or sell insurance products against them, implying they think pandemics can't be modelled. So far based on what I've read about the history of epidemiology, I can't disagree with them.

garmaine 7y ago

Well, we could have benefited greatly from the mainstream media and politicians taking the outside predictions seriously at the beginning of this crisis. Instead we had to wait a month for the Imperial College London to say the same exact thing before certain leaders got their heads out of the sand. Likewise now with hydroxychloroquine--if you listen to the epidemiologists all you'd hear is how it's an UNPROVEN drug. What we need instead is coverage of sample sizes, p values, bayesian predictions of effectiveness (in the absence of controlled studies) and serious modeling of the number of ICU beds and ventilators required with and without various levels of treatment, from emergency care to prophylactic use. The epidemiologists have their head in the sand and think we can just wait 6 months for a proper set of randomized trials. It's the less attached data modelers you need to turn to get predictions that are useful for effective policy choices.

martingoodson 7y ago
That's not really a fair representation. (Harvard epidemiologist) Marc Lipsitch raised the alarm back in February: "it's likely we'll see a global pandemic" of coronavirus, with 40 to 70 percent of the world's population likely to be infected this year." https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/482794-officials-say-the-cdc-is-preparing-for https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-c...

thu2111 7y ago

I do think it should be clear that the model is from outside the mainstream Which model? Your article mostly dwells on the Oxford model in the FT which is as mainstream as it gets. The Daily Mail article is about a prediction by an Imperial academic. There doesn't appear to be any "mainstream" in epidemiology. This kind of false-consensus argument is one I've seen before and frankly it undermines people's respect in both academic and journalism. How exactly is the "mainstream" established, in your mind? And don't talk about vague, easily manipulated non-metrics like reputation. Mainstream models should come from a single thing: success. Your insistence on rigid academic segmentation is the very thing that makes academia brittle and riven with non-replicable papers. You know which kind of modellers I respect the most? Actuaries. They have skin in the game. They don't try to predict pandemics or sell insurance products against them, implying they think pandemics can't be modelled. So far based on what I've read about the history of epidemiology, I can't disagree with them.