4 ms·

Maples: Yes, There's a Bubble

19 points by yakto 16y ago

jdp23 16y ago
TL;DR summary: “Is there a tech bubble? Rounded off to the nearest yes, yes”
dasil003 16y ago
Bla bla bla. Everyone just says whatever is in their best interest for others to believe, because really no one has clue one. Hey maybe peak oil will be way worse than we anticipated and it'll turn out that this whole capitalism thing was in fact a huge bubble.
tansey 16y ago
Why does it always have to be "bubble or correct valuations"? Can't it just be a somewhat overbought market?
- nostrademons 16y ago
  It's never "correct valuations" either. It's always "bubble" or "bust", sometimes both at the same time. Sensationalist headlines always grab more attention. "There's no story here" isn't a particularly good story.
georgieporgie 16y ago
Is Groupon's revenue sustainable? I thought companies were complaining that they lost money by participating, which would indicate to me that it's not sustainable business. I'm highly skeptical of Zynga because I haven't seen any evidence that they can innovate at all. I suspect people will tire of grind games, and I wonder if Zynga will be able to adapt. Maybe that's just my wishful thinking, that my family will abandon its addiction...
- edanm 16y ago
  "I thought companies were complaining that they lost money by participating [in Groupon], which would indicate to me that it's not sustainable business." Or it could indicate that for some companies, Groupon doesn't work. You can't really make a generalization out of that.
- mrchess 16y ago
  I'm pretty sure there was a figure floating around that suggested >60% of businesses who participated in Groupon ended up more profitable. That being said thats a pretty good gamble -- having a 60% chance shot at higher revenues. I'll update this with a link if I find the article again. Source: http://bit.ly/dChtxz http://bit.ly/dChtxz
- gte910h 16y ago
  >Is Groupon's revenue sustainable? I thought companies were complaining that they lost money by participating, which would indicate to me that it's not sustainable business. Someone wrote a bad article with worse graphs showing that 40% of people did not make more money while the promotion was going on. It had horrible methodology, and didn't even point out the food service business loses money on MOST things it does, and this is actually a very small rate of loss for "things you can do to boost sales". [Not associated with nor have I ever used groupon]
fedd 16y ago
let's remember about software startups. a lil bit longer time to profit, but no bubble (i think)
InclinedPlane 16y ago
Of course there's overvaluation, that's inevitable when people invest based solely on whether other people are investing rather than based on their own sound and experienced understanding of a particular company and it's prospects. However, this isn't 1999 anymore. The amount of real value in internet business is huge today, and the industry is more mature. Web companies take in hundreds of billions of dollars a year in revenue and the longest lived have been profitable for a decade or more. Meanwhile, though valuations are occasionally high the craziness from the first dot-com bubble has been much tempered. Investors aren't dumping millions into niche companies with no revenues, no history, and no business plan, they might be making risky bets from time to time but the risk is much reduced from the wild west era. Overall these factors add up to bubble protection measures. It's simply much harder for a true speculative dot-com bubble to build up and to burst. Instead we'll likely see dot-com companies meld into the same pattern as traditional companies, as sane investing takes hold and subject matter expertise becomes more common. Every industry, no matter how old, goes through periods of boom and bust, but generally the amplitude of these fluctuations is small enough for the economy to handle it.
JonnieCache 16y ago
“Is there a tech bubble? Rounded off to the nearest yes, yes” This is a great phrase, but I think it should be "the nearest boolean" unless he was trying to be clever.

19 points by yakto 16y ago

jdp23 16y ago

TL;DR summary: “Is there a tech bubble? Rounded off to the nearest yes, yes”

Bla bla bla. Everyone just says whatever is in their best interest for others to believe, because really no one has clue one. Hey maybe peak oil will be way worse than we anticipated and it'll turn out that this whole capitalism thing was in fact a huge bubble.

tansey 16y ago

Why does it always have to be "bubble or correct valuations"? Can't it just be a somewhat overbought market?

nostrademons 16y ago
It's never "correct valuations" either. It's always "bubble" or "bust", sometimes both at the same time. Sensationalist headlines always grab more attention. "There's no story here" isn't a particularly good story.

georgieporgie 16y ago

Is Groupon's revenue sustainable? I thought companies were complaining that they lost money by participating, which would indicate to me that it's not sustainable business. I'm highly skeptical of Zynga because I haven't seen any evidence that they can innovate at all. I suspect people will tire of grind games, and I wonder if Zynga will be able to adapt. Maybe that's just my wishful thinking, that my family will abandon its addiction...

edanm 16y ago
"I thought companies were complaining that they lost money by participating [in Groupon], which would indicate to me that it's not sustainable business." Or it could indicate that for some companies, Groupon doesn't work. You can't really make a generalization out of that.
mrchess 16y ago
I'm pretty sure there was a figure floating around that suggested >60% of businesses who participated in Groupon ended up more profitable. That being said thats a pretty good gamble -- having a 60% chance shot at higher revenues. I'll update this with a link if I find the article again. Source: http://bit.ly/dChtxz http://bit.ly/dChtxz
gte910h 16y ago
>Is Groupon's revenue sustainable? I thought companies were complaining that they lost money by participating, which would indicate to me that it's not sustainable business. Someone wrote a bad article with worse graphs showing that 40% of people did not make more money while the promotion was going on. It had horrible methodology, and didn't even point out the food service business loses money on MOST things it does, and this is actually a very small rate of loss for "things you can do to boost sales". [Not associated with nor have I ever used groupon]

fedd 16y ago

let's remember about software startups. a lil bit longer time to profit, but no bubble (i think)

InclinedPlane 16y ago

Of course there's overvaluation, that's inevitable when people invest based solely on whether other people are investing rather than based on their own sound and experienced understanding of a particular company and it's prospects. However, this isn't 1999 anymore. The amount of real value in internet business is huge today, and the industry is more mature. Web companies take in hundreds of billions of dollars a year in revenue and the longest lived have been profitable for a decade or more. Meanwhile, though valuations are occasionally high the craziness from the first dot-com bubble has been much tempered. Investors aren't dumping millions into niche companies with no revenues, no history, and no business plan, they might be making risky bets from time to time but the risk is much reduced from the wild west era. Overall these factors add up to bubble protection measures. It's simply much harder for a true speculative dot-com bubble to build up and to burst. Instead we'll likely see dot-com companies meld into the same pattern as traditional companies, as sane investing takes hold and subject matter expertise becomes more common. Every industry, no matter how old, goes through periods of boom and bust, but generally the amplitude of these fluctuations is small enough for the economy to handle it.

JonnieCache 16y ago

“Is there a tech bubble? Rounded off to the nearest yes, yes” This is a great phrase, but I think it should be "the nearest boolean" unless he was trying to be clever.