Italy had CFR 2% before their intensive care capacity hit the wall and advanced triage kicked in. They have also very tangled households where old and young liv

Italy had CFR 2% before their intensive care capacity hit the wall and advanced triage kicked in. They have also very tangled households where old and young live together and they are extremely social but I think you may say the same about Chinese (perhaps somebody with better knowledge can extend from this). The same happened in Spain. I think the CFR we see is mix of multiple things. Testing protocol (who gets testes - every possible case, only seriously sick etc), social structure (household structure, standard social behavior), demographics, chronic illnesses, health care capacity. I have observed two patters. When there are low amount (~20%) of elderly among the infected and health care capacity is not reached then CFR can be very low <<1% (Germany 02.% in the beginning for long time, Norway 0.5%). When there the number of elderly reaches is > 50% then the CFR will be order of magnitude higher (Italy, Spain in the beginning). When health care capacity is exceeded then CFR% will rise about 5 times (Italy, Spain).