3 ms·

Italy is probably not testing anywhere near as many people as they optimally should or rather the disease has outpaced their ability to test. Add in a collapsin

Italy is probably not testing anywhere near as many people as they optimally should or rather the disease has outpaced their ability to test. Add in a collapsing medical system and the end result isn't pretty. Unless you're on death's door I assume there's little point in someone taking up the system's time to get tested in Italy. As a comparison, Germany has a <2% fatality rate and has tested more people than Italy.

endorphone 7y ago
"As a comparison, Germany has a <2% fatality rate" Germany's good numbers may not hold. 20 days ago Germany had 7256 cases. Italy had 27977. 10 days ago Germany had 37307 cases. Italy had 74383. 0 days ago Germany had 96076 cases. Italy had 124629. The point being that Germany saw the outbreak take hold considerably after Italy. Italy had a very low original death rate as well -- approximately 2% weeks into the outbreak. This virus takes weeks to kill most of its victims. 14 days ago Germany had a death rate of 0.375%. 7 days ago, Germany had a death to case rate of 0.75%. Today it's at 1.5%. It has increased every day between. The fact that Italy is a hyper-social society, while Germany, at least from my probably wrong foreign view, is quite the opposite, probably changed the path of the disease, accelerating its spread in Italy.
- endorphone 7y ago
  Germany is up to 1.76% now.
  - marcinzm 7y ago
    Yes, as the infection spreads testing becomes overwhelmed and the apparent fatality rate goes up. A recent trial found that in one German town the actual fatality rate was 0.37%. They did antibody testing so they knew everyone who had been or was infected.
    - xenonite 7y ago
      I am not sure if it’s even possible to give the fatality rate before everything is over because we don’t know if an infected patient eventually dies from the disease with a long delay. This is why I totally expect a growing fatality rate now.

endorphone 7y ago

"As a comparison, Germany has a <2% fatality rate" Germany's good numbers may not hold. 20 days ago Germany had 7256 cases. Italy had 27977. 10 days ago Germany had 37307 cases. Italy had 74383. 0 days ago Germany had 96076 cases. Italy had 124629. The point being that Germany saw the outbreak take hold considerably after Italy. Italy had a very low original death rate as well -- approximately 2% weeks into the outbreak. This virus takes weeks to kill most of its victims. 14 days ago Germany had a death rate of 0.375%. 7 days ago, Germany had a death to case rate of 0.75%. Today it's at 1.5%. It has increased every day between. The fact that Italy is a hyper-social society, while Germany, at least from my probably wrong foreign view, is quite the opposite, probably changed the path of the disease, accelerating its spread in Italy.

endorphone 7y ago
Germany is up to 1.76% now.
- marcinzm 7y ago
  Yes, as the infection spreads testing becomes overwhelmed and the apparent fatality rate goes up. A recent trial found that in one German town the actual fatality rate was 0.37%. They did antibody testing so they knew everyone who had been or was infected.
  - xenonite 7y ago
    I am not sure if it’s even possible to give the fatality rate before everything is over because we don’t know if an infected patient eventually dies from the disease with a long delay. This is why I totally expect a growing fatality rate now.