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This is somewhat at odds with 21% of recorded outcomes so far having been deaths. There would have to be a hell of a lot of undiagnosed cases to bring that down

This is somewhat at odds with 21% of recorded outcomes so far having been deaths. There would have to be a hell of a lot of undiagnosed cases to bring that down to 0.66%.

jchallis 7y ago
Whatever the confusing data in this epidemic might say, there are unquestionably a hell of a lot of undiagnosed cases. 10x to 100x depending on your country's testing.
jschwartzi 7y ago
Iceland tested their entire populace and found several people who tested positive but remained asymptotic while infected. Given that testing in most countries is limited to people who can get into their doctor’s office the people who get tested and who test positive have more severe symptoms. There are probably a lot of people who have it and are spreading it unawares.
- lsllc 7y ago
  It wasn't "several people", it was an estimated 50% asymptomatic (based on sampling at least 5% of their population): https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europe/iceland-testing-coronavirus-intl/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europe/iceland-testing-corona...
  - pezo1919 7y ago
    I'm always sceptical with people said to be asymptomatic. It might be asymptomatic for 3-28+ days. The existence of antibodies will be a better measure.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
herman_toothrot 7y ago
Where did you obtain the figure of 21% outcomes being death? I only ask because this does not coincide with any statistics I've read personally.
- ModernMech 7y ago
  https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html 66,560 (total deaths) / (66,560 + 252,658(total recovered)) = .208 Obviously that's going to drop though, as more people recover. It's pretty useless to talk about at this stage.
  - WaltPurvis 7y ago
    More people are going to die, too. You haven't provided any basis for asserting the overall ratio of deaths to recoveries is going to drop.
    - ModernMech 7y ago
      My basis is looking at Spain and Italy which seem to be past their peak, recovered % is rising. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/
- whycombagator 7y ago
  > Where did you obtain the figure of 21% outcomes being death? https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
greendave 7y ago
Exactly. There are also a couple of articles floating around that look at total deaths in certain regions. Unfortunately there's a lot of variability but e.g. in some areas in Italy, non-Covid-19 deaths are >4x what they were at similar times in the past, which suggests that many Covid-19-related deaths are not being identified.
- Jommi 7y ago
  Source? Would love to see that data!
artursapek 7y ago
There are
jacobsenscott 7y ago
There are at least two hells of a lot of un-diagnosed cases.
perl4ever 7y ago
When I assume a reasonable lag time between a case and death, the figures I am seeing (worldometers and elsewhere) seem to be about 5%. Then the difference between 5% and <1% would presumably be all the mild cases that aren't diagnosed. If you look at the percentage of outcomes in the graph on worldometers' page, which I think you're getting ~20% from, it declined and then increased again; it is clearly not converging (yet) to the number people really want to know.

This is somewhat at odds with 21% of recorded outcomes so far having been deaths. There would have to be a hell of a lot of undiagnosed cases to bring that down to 0.66%.

jchallis 7y ago

Whatever the confusing data in this epidemic might say, there are unquestionably a hell of a lot of undiagnosed cases. 10x to 100x depending on your country's testing.

jschwartzi 7y ago

Iceland tested their entire populace and found several people who tested positive but remained asymptotic while infected. Given that testing in most countries is limited to people who can get into their doctor’s office the people who get tested and who test positive have more severe symptoms. There are probably a lot of people who have it and are spreading it unawares.

lsllc 7y ago
It wasn't "several people", it was an estimated 50% asymptomatic (based on sampling at least 5% of their population): https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europe/iceland-testing-coronavirus-intl/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europe/iceland-testing-corona...
- pezo1919 7y ago
  I'm always sceptical with people said to be asymptomatic. It might be asymptomatic for 3-28+ days. The existence of antibodies will be a better measure.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

herman_toothrot 7y ago

Where did you obtain the figure of 21% outcomes being death? I only ask because this does not coincide with any statistics I've read personally.

ModernMech 7y ago
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html 66,560 (total deaths) / (66,560 + 252,658(total recovered)) = .208 Obviously that's going to drop though, as more people recover. It's pretty useless to talk about at this stage.
- WaltPurvis 7y ago
  More people are going to die, too. You haven't provided any basis for asserting the overall ratio of deaths to recoveries is going to drop.
  - ModernMech 7y ago
    My basis is looking at Spain and Italy which seem to be past their peak, recovered % is rising. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/
whycombagator 7y ago
> Where did you obtain the figure of 21% outcomes being death? https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

greendave 7y ago

Exactly. There are also a couple of articles floating around that look at total deaths in certain regions. Unfortunately there's a lot of variability but e.g. in some areas in Italy, non-Covid-19 deaths are >4x what they were at similar times in the past, which suggests that many Covid-19-related deaths are not being identified.

Jommi 7y ago
Source? Would love to see that data!

artursapek 7y ago

There are

jacobsenscott 7y ago

There are at least two hells of a lot of un-diagnosed cases.

perl4ever 7y ago

When I assume a reasonable lag time between a case and death, the figures I am seeing (worldometers and elsewhere) seem to be about 5%. Then the difference between 5% and <1% would presumably be all the mild cases that aren't diagnosed. If you look at the percentage of outcomes in the graph on worldometers' page, which I think you're getting ~20% from, it declined and then increased again; it is clearly not converging (yet) to the number people really want to know.