4 ms·

Unemployment Rate in U.S. stands to hit 32% says Federal Reserve

12 points by mmhsieh 7y ago

zapttt 7y ago
why a state fed is making those predictions?
dntbnmpls 7y ago
[Dupe] "Job losses could total 47M, unemployment 32%, St. Louis Fed president says" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22730170 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22730170 Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemployment rate https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22732953 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22732953
kasperni 7y ago
Lock-down or not, people are not going to be spending any money as long as there is a worldwide health crisis.
someguy101010 7y ago
The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that unemployment rose to 4.4% in March [1]. The article mentions that this was a back of the envelope calculation so I'm not going to panic just yet. [1] https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/03/us-jobs-report-march-unemployment-coronavirus https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/20...
- pridkett 7y ago
  Note that the reference week in this month’s job report only went through March 12th. That was before the back to back record weeks of first time unemployment claims of 3mm and 6mm. Despite all that, the job report was still significantly worse than predicted (701k losses vs consensus of 100k losses). Yes, this back of the envelope calculation may be a worst case, but the situation is far worse than a 4.4% unemployment rate. Look for revisions to make this even worse.
awaythrower 7y ago
Stagflation ahead. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/what-comes-after-coronavirus-for-economy-worry-about-stagflation.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/what-comes-after-coronavirus... Get ready for 'stagflation' https://youtu.be/6psKnT5a4Gg https://youtu.be/6psKnT5a4Gg Also, the US unemployment numbers are highly-politicized and manipulated. For one, they fail to account for the labor force participation rate, livable wages, employment hours desired vs. actual, having to work multiple jobs while being unable to save, or not/having healthcare.
- RickJWagner 7y ago
  I hope not. I remember stagflation from the Carter-era, it was a pretty dismal time.
rdtwo 7y ago
CBO estimate was 10% that’s probably conservatively low but still not in the range of 32. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56314 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56314

12 points by mmhsieh 7y ago

why a state fed is making those predictions?

[Dupe] "Job losses could total 47M, unemployment 32%, St. Louis Fed president says" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22730170 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22730170 Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemployment rate https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22732953 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22732953

kasperni 7y ago

Lock-down or not, people are not going to be spending any money as long as there is a worldwide health crisis.

someguy101010 7y ago

The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that unemployment rose to 4.4% in March [1]. The article mentions that this was a back of the envelope calculation so I'm not going to panic just yet. [1] https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/03/us-jobs-report-march-unemployment-coronavirus https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/20...

pridkett 7y ago
Note that the reference week in this month’s job report only went through March 12th. That was before the back to back record weeks of first time unemployment claims of 3mm and 6mm. Despite all that, the job report was still significantly worse than predicted (701k losses vs consensus of 100k losses). Yes, this back of the envelope calculation may be a worst case, but the situation is far worse than a 4.4% unemployment rate. Look for revisions to make this even worse.

awaythrower 7y ago

Stagflation ahead. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/what-comes-after-coronavirus-for-economy-worry-about-stagflation.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/what-comes-after-coronavirus... Get ready for 'stagflation' https://youtu.be/6psKnT5a4Gg https://youtu.be/6psKnT5a4Gg Also, the US unemployment numbers are highly-politicized and manipulated. For one, they fail to account for the labor force participation rate, livable wages, employment hours desired vs. actual, having to work multiple jobs while being unable to save, or not/having healthcare.

RickJWagner 7y ago
I hope not. I remember stagflation from the Carter-era, it was a pretty dismal time.

rdtwo 7y ago

CBO estimate was 10% that’s probably conservatively low but still not in the range of 32. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56314 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56314