Prediction: The great unwinding is going to be felt much more severely by Big Tech employees, but many months out from today. Source: I don't work at Big Tech,

Prediction: The great unwinding is going to be felt much more severely by Big Tech employees, but many months out from today. Source: I don't work at Big Tech, but personally know many folks who do. For the most part, they are not really thinking very far into the future, because they think (with some justification) that their jobs are much safer than startups and smallish companies. 1 The usual reasons of less people spending money on stuff holds, of course. If your customer is now unemployed, they will eventually cancel your software subscription too. 2 Most employees working at these companies have stock options which will plummet once people start pulling money out of the stock market because they actually need the cash to survive. 3 There will be the usual letting go of people because the manager doesn't like them. In a big company, ironically, this is much easier because no single employee is indispensable. 4 The actual problems are not going to start at Big Tech till about a year from today. This is one of the main problems. Most predictions of economic recovery are way too optimistic. Unless something extraordinary happens (e.g. a combination of off-the-shelf medicines, all in large supply, which miraculously just negates the virus, and we learn about it tomorrow). There is an excellent chance that the layoffs will hit Big Tech precisely when most of their employees think they are safe. 5 The biggest problem, in my view, is how much these employees are used to the cash cushion. There will always be a few prudent folks who save a large chunk, but generally the lifestyles have already been elevated to match the income. The folks who never raised their lifestyle to that level will not really have much to worry about, but that is a small minority. One can imagine these folks - who are basically going to be the last to be laid off, having to compete with much more hungrier folks while simultaneously having to significantly downsize their lifestyle. And suppose they also bring an "attitude" with them (not that everyone does, but some do), who will want to hire them? Some folks will point out the large cash holdings of these companies and easy access to credit. But how far can that runway last, realistically, under these types of circumstances?