3 ms·

There is a quadrivalent vaccine available for the flu. And the coronavirus is at least 10x more deadly than the flu. It makes sense to treat it differently.

sharken 7y ago
Is there any data that can support that 10x claim just yet? An example: In the US state North Carolina there has been 33 deaths to Corona so far, source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ The 2018-2019 flu season was reported to be 285 deaths, source: https://www.northcarolinahealthnews.org/2020/01/09/ahh-choo-flu-season-hits-hard-in-north-carolina/ https://www.northcarolinahealthnews.org/2020/01/09/ahh-choo-... So a 10x mortality would mean 2.850 deaths in North Carolina by December 2020 and you have to offset that with the above article that stated the following back in January: "flu season is officially underway with initial reports predicting it could be among the worst flu seasons to hit in a decade."
- dredmorbius 7y ago
  Keep in mind that there are multiple elements to risk: mortality (deaths), morbidity (general diseased or injured state, also incidence or prevalence), infectiousness, detectability, rate of transmission, long-term health consequences, social & economic impacts. Regards COVID-19: The COVID-19 situation is changing rapidly. Since this disease is caused by a new virus, people do not have immunity to it, and a vaccine may be many months away. Doctors and scientists are working on estimating the mortality rate of COVID-19, but at present, it is thought to be higher than that of most strains of the flu. https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseas... Comparing with other diseases: Mortality rate for SARS was 10%, and for MERS 34%. Virus Death Rate Wuhan Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): 2%* SARS: 9.6% MERS: 4% Swine Flu: 0.02% The case fatality rate with seasonal flu in the United States is less than 0.1% (1 death per every 1,000 cases). https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#comparison https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-... https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203 https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203
- DanBC 7y ago
  Worldometers doesn't seem to say: How is North Carolina defining a covid-19 death? At the moment the cumulative deaths to covid-19 appear to be doubling every 3 days. In some places it's less than 3 days. That means in 21 days we'd expect to see just over 4000 total covid-19 deaths in North Carolina.
  - sharken 7y ago
    So in 21 days the number of deaths will be 4000, while Belgium with a similar population is at almost 1500 currently. That sounds rather unlikely given that the population in Belgium is also older than in North Carolina.
    - detaro 7y ago
      21 days ago Belgium was at 4 deaths, two doublings away from 33. They were at 30-40 total deaths 16 days ago, now they are at ~150 daily, total doubling every ~4 days. so going from 30 to a few thousand in 21 days is what is happening. Can NC avoid that? Maybe, but I wouldn't bet on it personally.
      - sharken 7y ago
        It all depends on how well the very old and those with other chronic illnesses will be protected, as they are the ones at risk. The development for NC can be followed at https://www.ncdhhs.gov/divisions/public-health/covid19/covid-19-nc-case-count https://www.ncdhhs.gov/divisions/public-health/covid19/covid.... This article does a good job of explaining which age groups are susceptible to Corona virus: https://www.vox.com/2020/4/1/21203198/coronavirus-deaths-us-italy-china-south-korea https://www.vox.com/2020/4/1/21203198/coronavirus-deaths-us-... To put things into perspective, in the flu season 2017/18, Germany had 25,100 deaths (source: https://thegermanyeye.com/flu-vaccination-penultimate-wave-was-deadliest-in-30-years-3748 https://thegermanyeye.com/flu-vaccination-penultimate-wave-w...) while they currently have registered 1,584 deaths due to Corona virus. So yes Germany has probably saved some with the current measures, but should we then close down the society each year to combat the common flu as well ?
      - 7y ago

sharken 7y ago

Is there any data that can support that 10x claim just yet? An example: In the US state North Carolina there has been 33 deaths to Corona so far, source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ The 2018-2019 flu season was reported to be 285 deaths, source: https://www.northcarolinahealthnews.org/2020/01/09/ahh-choo-flu-season-hits-hard-in-north-carolina/ https://www.northcarolinahealthnews.org/2020/01/09/ahh-choo-... So a 10x mortality would mean 2.850 deaths in North Carolina by December 2020 and you have to offset that with the above article that stated the following back in January: "flu season is officially underway with initial reports predicting it could be among the worst flu seasons to hit in a decade."

dredmorbius 7y ago
Keep in mind that there are multiple elements to risk: mortality (deaths), morbidity (general diseased or injured state, also incidence or prevalence), infectiousness, detectability, rate of transmission, long-term health consequences, social & economic impacts. Regards COVID-19: The COVID-19 situation is changing rapidly. Since this disease is caused by a new virus, people do not have immunity to it, and a vaccine may be many months away. Doctors and scientists are working on estimating the mortality rate of COVID-19, but at present, it is thought to be higher than that of most strains of the flu. https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseas... Comparing with other diseases: Mortality rate for SARS was 10%, and for MERS 34%. Virus Death Rate Wuhan Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): 2%* SARS: 9.6% MERS: 4% Swine Flu: 0.02% The case fatality rate with seasonal flu in the United States is less than 0.1% (1 death per every 1,000 cases). https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#comparison https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-... https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203 https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203
DanBC 7y ago
Worldometers doesn't seem to say: How is North Carolina defining a covid-19 death? At the moment the cumulative deaths to covid-19 appear to be doubling every 3 days. In some places it's less than 3 days. That means in 21 days we'd expect to see just over 4000 total covid-19 deaths in North Carolina.
- sharken 7y ago
  So in 21 days the number of deaths will be 4000, while Belgium with a similar population is at almost 1500 currently. That sounds rather unlikely given that the population in Belgium is also older than in North Carolina.
  - detaro 7y ago
    21 days ago Belgium was at 4 deaths, two doublings away from 33. They were at 30-40 total deaths 16 days ago, now they are at ~150 daily, total doubling every ~4 days. so going from 30 to a few thousand in 21 days is what is happening. Can NC avoid that? Maybe, but I wouldn't bet on it personally.
    - sharken 7y ago
      It all depends on how well the very old and those with other chronic illnesses will be protected, as they are the ones at risk. The development for NC can be followed at https://www.ncdhhs.gov/divisions/public-health/covid19/covid-19-nc-case-count https://www.ncdhhs.gov/divisions/public-health/covid19/covid.... This article does a good job of explaining which age groups are susceptible to Corona virus: https://www.vox.com/2020/4/1/21203198/coronavirus-deaths-us-italy-china-south-korea https://www.vox.com/2020/4/1/21203198/coronavirus-deaths-us-... To put things into perspective, in the flu season 2017/18, Germany had 25,100 deaths (source: https://thegermanyeye.com/flu-vaccination-penultimate-wave-was-deadliest-in-30-years-3748 https://thegermanyeye.com/flu-vaccination-penultimate-wave-w...) while they currently have registered 1,584 deaths due to Corona virus. So yes Germany has probably saved some with the current measures, but should we then close down the society each year to combat the common flu as well ?
    - 7y ago