6 ms·

Hope this goes better than the when there were unintended consequences from the UK and the US overthrowing the government of Iran. Seems like every time outside

Hope this goes better than the when there were unintended consequences from the UK and the US overthrowing the government of Iran. Seems like every time outsiders decide to topple some regime, something worse pops up in its place. That might be hard to imagine with how terrible North Korea currently is, but there are ways for it to be even worse.

maallooc 7y ago
The case of North Korea will be very different from (insert middle east/central american country here). It's surrounded with robust countries like China, South Korea and Japan. There are so many interests that it's impossible for a simple militia or a government of their own to hold a grasp. They will go down and they will be absorbed by their neighbors. At least for now.
- oneVoiceOnHN 7y ago
  Or become the front of the US China cold war...
  - zapttt 7y ago
    so after aplitting korea into north and south (as they are know all around the world), the US will again split north korea into west/east. will it be east korea? or north east korea?
  - phkahler 7y ago
    I figured it already is. China could make N Korea stop their shenanigans any time, but they don't. I figure they like having them there most the time stiring things up. And if they wanted to actually start trouble having them start it would provide a layer of deniability.
    - magicsmoke 7y ago
      NK's nukes are just as much pointed at China as they are pointed at the US/SK. If China decides to choke off their oil NK will be sure to remind China that if their regime falls, they'll be sure to lob some missiles in China's direction first. Thinking of NK is purely a Chinese puppet instead of an independent actor with their own wants and freedom of action really limits the geopolitical cards the US could play here. Imagine if the US could flip NK like how Nixon flipped China against the USSR.
      - phkahler 7y ago
        That's cute. China would not allow NK to become a friend of the US. There are so many ways to shut that down.
        magicsmoke 7y ago
        Many ways that would cost China and NK much more than the US. That's how you play the game, make it hurt more for your opponents than yourself. Right now, even the possibility that NK could flip to the US makes China treat NK with baby gloves, and as a result they have a nuclear capable country right on their border. You think China's leaders are happy about that? It's another potential hotspot they have to worry about that could spill into China in addition to all the other hotspots they have to deal with thanks to the fact that China borders more countries than any other in the world. More stress on the Chinese government = more ways they can screw up. +1 for America.
        mangamadaiyan 7y ago
        Nitpick: s/baby gloves/kid gloves/g. The "kid" in the phrase "kid gloves" doesn't refer to children. It refers instead to leather made from kid goats. Kidskin leather is thinner and softer than other kinds of leather, and doesn't leave smudges on delicate articles. Hence the phrase "kid glove treatment", implying handling something with delicacy and tact.
      - deleted 7y ago
        [deleted]
- JadeNB 7y ago
  If the history of the world teaches anything, it's that "don't worry, the effects of this will be small and contained" is always false. (Insert inevitable Godwinism here.)
- Ididntdothis 7y ago
  South Korea should be worried about the cost of such a reunification. East Germany was in much better shape than North Korea and the Germany reunification still took a lot of money and time to do. Building up North Korea will be very hard.
  - save_ferris 7y ago
    Not to mention that East Germany still suffers from economic stigmas that still haven’t gone away 30 years after reunification. It doesn’t get the same kind of investment or attention that West Germany does today. One fairly high-profile (yet topical) example of this is the top flight of German Football. East German teams rarely even make the German Bundesliga[0], and my understanding is that there’s currently only one Eastern German team in the 20-team league. 0: https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/oct/17/west-german-teams-still-dominate-the-east-in-the-bundesliga https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/oct/17/west-g...
    - xzel 7y ago
      I sort of agree with you on the idea but top flight soccer teams are a bad example. That requires fans / high population density and then investment from a group into paying and attracting players. West German is much more dense. You’d also have to look at the distribution of top flight teams when Germany was separated, which was probably still population density skewed.
  - oehtXRwMkIs 7y ago
    It's a bit different this time, South Korea is keenly aware of the cost and already has allocated a lot of money towards the possibility. Last I've heard a tax and much larger fund has been proposed by various politicians though I'm not sure what the state of that is today. Furthermore, it seems to be greatly beneficial for Korea in the long term due to the abundance of natural resources in North Korea. Goldman Sachs for example predicted in 2009 that a unified Korea would be the largest economy in the G7 after the US in 30 years.
  - ses1984 7y ago
    Why is cost even an issue? The cost is nothing compared to all the suffering. Building up North Korea isn't hard, living in North Korea is hard.
- nine_k 7y ago
  If anything, South Korean politicians are terrified by the perspective of North Korean regime falling. For political reasons, reunification would be inevitable. It has been the stated goal of politicians for decades. For economical reasons, reunification would be devastating. South Korea is not exactly poor, but the amount it would take to lift North Korea to a living standard which is not outrageously low (let alone comparable to the South) would be immense, and the living standards of South would plummet very significantly. This is a totally different kind of deal than reunification of Germany. For cultural reasons, reunification would be a tough cookie. Nearly 70 years apart, in strict isolation, and under a constant inescapable brainwashing made North Korean culture drastically different from Southern Korean. Even the language evolved differently (and totalitarian regimes are keen to control and bend the everyday language to match their narrative). Now North and South are not separated brothers but more like distant cousins who grew separated by an ocean. So South Korea will try to keep North Korea going as much as possible without losing face. Source: a few lectures by experts in the question.
vinniejames 7y ago
Over under China will take over NK then slowly encroach on SK
- dontbenebby 7y ago
  Or the US could use it as a chance to reduce tensions. Tell China they can control the territory in exchage for them stopping all hostilities in the South China Sea (where they falsely try to claim international waters by building artificial islands.) That + making NK a nuclear free zone could be a compromise that benefits everyone
  - phkahler 7y ago
    They already control it by proxy.
    - Mediterraneo10 7y ago
      While China supports the existence of North Korea, it would be a stretch to say that they control it. The CCP leadership has been exasperated by many decisions taken by the North Korean leadership, but they simply believe overlooking North Korea's erratic actions is better than allowing it to pass into South Korea or the USA’s influence.
  - boomboomsubban 7y ago
    >Tell China they can control the territory in exchage for them stopping all hostilities in the South China Sea What does China gain here? Integrating North Korea would be no simple task, and there would be no real military benefit over the current situation. Meanwhile they'd give up their (legitimately weak) claim over parts of the South China Sea oil reserves and trade routes. >That + making NK a nuclear free zone could be a compromise that benefits everyone North Korea has been offering that compromise for decades, the US refuses to make all of Korea a nuclear bomb free zone.
    - dontbenebby 7y ago

maallooc 7y ago

The case of North Korea will be very different from (insert middle east/central american country here). It's surrounded with robust countries like China, South Korea and Japan. There are so many interests that it's impossible for a simple militia or a government of their own to hold a grasp. They will go down and they will be absorbed by their neighbors. At least for now.

oneVoiceOnHN 7y ago
Or become the front of the US China cold war...
- zapttt 7y ago
  so after aplitting korea into north and south (as they are know all around the world), the US will again split north korea into west/east. will it be east korea? or north east korea?
- phkahler 7y ago
  I figured it already is. China could make N Korea stop their shenanigans any time, but they don't. I figure they like having them there most the time stiring things up. And if they wanted to actually start trouble having them start it would provide a layer of deniability.
  - magicsmoke 7y ago
    NK's nukes are just as much pointed at China as they are pointed at the US/SK. If China decides to choke off their oil NK will be sure to remind China that if their regime falls, they'll be sure to lob some missiles in China's direction first. Thinking of NK is purely a Chinese puppet instead of an independent actor with their own wants and freedom of action really limits the geopolitical cards the US could play here. Imagine if the US could flip NK like how Nixon flipped China against the USSR.
    - phkahler 7y ago
      That's cute. China would not allow NK to become a friend of the US. There are so many ways to shut that down.
      - magicsmoke 7y ago
        Many ways that would cost China and NK much more than the US. That's how you play the game, make it hurt more for your opponents than yourself. Right now, even the possibility that NK could flip to the US makes China treat NK with baby gloves, and as a result they have a nuclear capable country right on their border. You think China's leaders are happy about that? It's another potential hotspot they have to worry about that could spill into China in addition to all the other hotspots they have to deal with thanks to the fact that China borders more countries than any other in the world. More stress on the Chinese government = more ways they can screw up. +1 for America.
        mangamadaiyan 7y ago
        Nitpick: s/baby gloves/kid gloves/g. The "kid" in the phrase "kid gloves" doesn't refer to children. It refers instead to leather made from kid goats. Kidskin leather is thinner and softer than other kinds of leather, and doesn't leave smudges on delicate articles. Hence the phrase "kid glove treatment", implying handling something with delicacy and tact.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
JadeNB 7y ago
If the history of the world teaches anything, it's that "don't worry, the effects of this will be small and contained" is always false. (Insert inevitable Godwinism here.)
Ididntdothis 7y ago
South Korea should be worried about the cost of such a reunification. East Germany was in much better shape than North Korea and the Germany reunification still took a lot of money and time to do. Building up North Korea will be very hard.
- save_ferris 7y ago
  Not to mention that East Germany still suffers from economic stigmas that still haven’t gone away 30 years after reunification. It doesn’t get the same kind of investment or attention that West Germany does today. One fairly high-profile (yet topical) example of this is the top flight of German Football. East German teams rarely even make the German Bundesliga[0], and my understanding is that there’s currently only one Eastern German team in the 20-team league. 0: https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/oct/17/west-german-teams-still-dominate-the-east-in-the-bundesliga https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/oct/17/west-g...
  - xzel 7y ago
    I sort of agree with you on the idea but top flight soccer teams are a bad example. That requires fans / high population density and then investment from a group into paying and attracting players. West German is much more dense. You’d also have to look at the distribution of top flight teams when Germany was separated, which was probably still population density skewed.
- oehtXRwMkIs 7y ago
  It's a bit different this time, South Korea is keenly aware of the cost and already has allocated a lot of money towards the possibility. Last I've heard a tax and much larger fund has been proposed by various politicians though I'm not sure what the state of that is today. Furthermore, it seems to be greatly beneficial for Korea in the long term due to the abundance of natural resources in North Korea. Goldman Sachs for example predicted in 2009 that a unified Korea would be the largest economy in the G7 after the US in 30 years.
- ses1984 7y ago
  Why is cost even an issue? The cost is nothing compared to all the suffering. Building up North Korea isn't hard, living in North Korea is hard.
nine_k 7y ago
If anything, South Korean politicians are terrified by the perspective of North Korean regime falling. For political reasons, reunification would be inevitable. It has been the stated goal of politicians for decades. For economical reasons, reunification would be devastating. South Korea is not exactly poor, but the amount it would take to lift North Korea to a living standard which is not outrageously low (let alone comparable to the South) would be immense, and the living standards of South would plummet very significantly. This is a totally different kind of deal than reunification of Germany. For cultural reasons, reunification would be a tough cookie. Nearly 70 years apart, in strict isolation, and under a constant inescapable brainwashing made North Korean culture drastically different from Southern Korean. Even the language evolved differently (and totalitarian regimes are keen to control and bend the everyday language to match their narrative). Now North and South are not separated brothers but more like distant cousins who grew separated by an ocean. So South Korea will try to keep North Korea going as much as possible without losing face. Source: a few lectures by experts in the question.

vinniejames 7y ago

Over under China will take over NK then slowly encroach on SK

dontbenebby 7y ago
Or the US could use it as a chance to reduce tensions. Tell China they can control the territory in exchage for them stopping all hostilities in the South China Sea (where they falsely try to claim international waters by building artificial islands.) That + making NK a nuclear free zone could be a compromise that benefits everyone
- phkahler 7y ago
  They already control it by proxy.
  - Mediterraneo10 7y ago
    While China supports the existence of North Korea, it would be a stretch to say that they control it. The CCP leadership has been exasperated by many decisions taken by the North Korean leadership, but they simply believe overlooking North Korea's erratic actions is better than allowing it to pass into South Korea or the USA’s influence.
- boomboomsubban 7y ago
  >Tell China they can control the territory in exchage for them stopping all hostilities in the South China Sea What does China gain here? Integrating North Korea would be no simple task, and there would be no real military benefit over the current situation. Meanwhile they'd give up their (legitimately weak) claim over parts of the South China Sea oil reserves and trade routes. >That + making NK a nuclear free zone could be a compromise that benefits everyone North Korea has been offering that compromise for decades, the US refuses to make all of Korea a nuclear bomb free zone.
  - dontbenebby 7y ago