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Hoarding is an interesting phenomena... you start with some people panic buying supplies unreasonably. That runs supplies low... now, a person that otherwise m

Hoarding is an interesting phenomena... you start with some people panic buying supplies unreasonably. That runs supplies low... now, a person that otherwise might not hoard at the first sign of crisis rationally must do at least a little so since they may not be able to get their supplies as usual... which in turns amplifies it all. If you went to the store and they happened to have TP would you take the opportunity to buy it, need now or not? I probably would unless I already had few weeks on hand. I live in the bay area, too... and I have a Target who's front door is about 200' from my front door. I have seen TP and paper towels... but it goes very fast when it's there. Of course, I called our close by friends as soon as I saw the stock and I'm sure others did as well. It was gone very quickly. If that's happening everywhere. Reductions in logistics capacity will also contribute to the slowness of getting some of this stuff to store shelves regardless of production capacity. Until you start seeing "shelter in place" orders lifting, I think this is only the start of the consumable goods problem.

ghaff 7y ago
I did something similar with flour yesterday. I was in a grocery store getting mostly dairy and some other perishables I was starting to run a bit low on. But I saw a solitary 5# bag of King Arthur flour and grabbed it. I wasn't out at home but I was down to a few pounds of all-purpose flour so it seemed sensible to grab some more while I had the opportunity. I'm sure a lot of people are acting that way.
- nitrogen 7y ago
  This is exactly how people act during normal times, isn't it? Or are people really running on such thin margins that they have to shop every few days?
  - ghaff 7y ago
    I think most people normally run on thinner margins. Personally, I probably end up with more food etc. in the house than I need during normal times. Even so, I've definitely picked up some things that happened to be available which weren't really at my usual informal restock level yet. I'm talking about things that I probably have a good 2-3 week supply of and getting some more anyway. ADDED: Part of it is that a lot of people in cities don't have a lot of storage space. Furthermore, a lot of people also can't really afford to lay in large quantities of products rather than picking up enough to last a week or so when they run out.
sbuttgereit 7y ago
I was going to edit but I think a new comment here is more fair: The other comments about commercial vs. residential TP are good, too. Turns out our economy is complex. Think of how even this discussion about TP reveals a large scale bifurcation of how a singular, simple product is produced and supplied. Once you bring in the rest of the upstream and downstream supply chains... it's incomprehensibly complex. This gets to something I'm concerned about which is the readiness of policymakers to designate this business "non-essential" and so should shut down, and that business "essential" and should remain in operation. How much does the essential economy depend on the non-essential economy? I mentioned logistics, I bet trucks carrying TP (of either class) also depend on other, less essential products... how many of these trucks were marginal in the good times and will end up closing up shop reducing overall readily available container space? Some of my clients are companies that make use of industrial CNC machines; and I've seen some of the same machines in use in very different businesses. For example, one client made higher end bicycle parts and the other made lab equipment for bio-tech applications. One is likely considered essential, the other not: the company that makes the CNC machines will still get business from the "essential" business while they won't from the non-essential business. How will that CNC machine company deal with the reduced economies of scale or their own suppliers that are perhaps less clearly essential failing to supply them? How will that impact the bio-tech lab equipment company? I've also posted this before... but it's applicable here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XetplHcM7aQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XetplHcM7aQ

ghaff 7y ago

I did something similar with flour yesterday. I was in a grocery store getting mostly dairy and some other perishables I was starting to run a bit low on. But I saw a solitary 5# bag of King Arthur flour and grabbed it. I wasn't out at home but I was down to a few pounds of all-purpose flour so it seemed sensible to grab some more while I had the opportunity. I'm sure a lot of people are acting that way.

nitrogen 7y ago
This is exactly how people act during normal times, isn't it? Or are people really running on such thin margins that they have to shop every few days?
- ghaff 7y ago
  I think most people normally run on thinner margins. Personally, I probably end up with more food etc. in the house than I need during normal times. Even so, I've definitely picked up some things that happened to be available which weren't really at my usual informal restock level yet. I'm talking about things that I probably have a good 2-3 week supply of and getting some more anyway. ADDED: Part of it is that a lot of people in cities don't have a lot of storage space. Furthermore, a lot of people also can't really afford to lay in large quantities of products rather than picking up enough to last a week or so when they run out.

sbuttgereit 7y ago

I was going to edit but I think a new comment here is more fair: The other comments about commercial vs. residential TP are good, too. Turns out our economy is complex. Think of how even this discussion about TP reveals a large scale bifurcation of how a singular, simple product is produced and supplied. Once you bring in the rest of the upstream and downstream supply chains... it's incomprehensibly complex. This gets to something I'm concerned about which is the readiness of policymakers to designate this business "non-essential" and so should shut down, and that business "essential" and should remain in operation. How much does the essential economy depend on the non-essential economy? I mentioned logistics, I bet trucks carrying TP (of either class) also depend on other, less essential products... how many of these trucks were marginal in the good times and will end up closing up shop reducing overall readily available container space? Some of my clients are companies that make use of industrial CNC machines; and I've seen some of the same machines in use in very different businesses. For example, one client made higher end bicycle parts and the other made lab equipment for bio-tech applications. One is likely considered essential, the other not: the company that makes the CNC machines will still get business from the "essential" business while they won't from the non-essential business. How will that CNC machine company deal with the reduced economies of scale or their own suppliers that are perhaps less clearly essential failing to supply them? How will that impact the bio-tech lab equipment company? I've also posted this before... but it's applicable here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XetplHcM7aQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XetplHcM7aQ