6 ms·

Coronavirus is now the 3rd leading cause of death in U.S.

29 points by sahin-boydas 7y ago

mgh2 7y ago
It will become the 1st in a short while
- verdverm 7y ago
  For a short while. Do you know how many fatalities it would take to meaningfully move the CDR for a year or even month? Do you think CDR will be lower next year because we will eventually get back to average?
  - GuB-42 7y ago
    > Do you think CDR will be lower next year because we will eventually get back to average? There will certainly be a drop in mortality just after the pandemic. Especially for older people. If you look here https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html (European data). You'll see spikes in mortality corresponding, I think, to the severity of that year's flu epidemic. Right after the each spike, there is a small drop proportional to the size of the spike. It is especially visible on the 65+ graph. These graphs can also tell you the magnitude of of bad flu season, it is too early to tell how COVID-19 will appear.
  - kian 7y ago
    7500 per day is roughly the death rate of the country as a whole. We're less than 4 doubling periods from that.
    - lurquer 7y ago
      I'd like to see what the current daily number of deaths is for US. UK has a good current weekly tally. Can't find anything similar for US. It would be helpful to determine the amount of overlap. That is, there has been a precipitous drop in pneumonia deaths since January. (That stat is tallied at CDC on a weekly basis.) how many of those have been recatagorized as covid deaths?
      - credit_guy 7y ago
        This is what I use: https://www.bing.com/covid/local/unitedstates https://www.bing.com/covid/local/unitedstates As of now (4/4, 4pm EST) I can see 1376 fatalities in the last day, and a total of 8283.
        lurquer 7y ago
        No, I mean daily US deaths from ALL causes.
        verdverm 7y ago
        It's roughly 7500 daily in the US. another way is the Ave global CDR calculated at the mid point of the year. 1.8% Birth 0.8% Death ~360M * 0.008
      - nostrademons 7y ago
        The drop in pneumonia deaths is largely because flu season is ending. Before COVID, flu was one of the leading causes of pneumonia, and pneumonia deaths typically trend alongside flu season.
        lurquer 7y ago
        Data cones before analysis... I'd like to see the increase (If any) of actual deaths in US on a week by week basis. Just looking for a good source of that number... If it exists.
sschueller 7y ago
"About 647,000 Americans die from heart disease each year" [1] So even if 200k die from COVID19 it is a long way away from heart disease. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/heartdisease/facts.htm https://www.cdc.gov/heartdisease/facts.htm
phillipseamore 7y ago
Well, deaths attributed to C-19 should also decrease other deaths (i.e. total deaths should be equal or more, but other causes should decrease). This is not a 100% add-on.
- jmiskovic 7y ago
  It's more complicated. The lockdown has slowed down spread of other diseases and lowered traffic causalities. On the other hand normally treatable conditions are not getting the required attention. It is impossible to get clear picture of whole effect on death statistics.

29 points by sahin-boydas 7y ago

mgh2 7y ago

It will become the 1st in a short while

verdverm 7y ago
For a short while. Do you know how many fatalities it would take to meaningfully move the CDR for a year or even month? Do you think CDR will be lower next year because we will eventually get back to average?
- GuB-42 7y ago
  > Do you think CDR will be lower next year because we will eventually get back to average? There will certainly be a drop in mortality just after the pandemic. Especially for older people. If you look here https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html (European data). You'll see spikes in mortality corresponding, I think, to the severity of that year's flu epidemic. Right after the each spike, there is a small drop proportional to the size of the spike. It is especially visible on the 65+ graph. These graphs can also tell you the magnitude of of bad flu season, it is too early to tell how COVID-19 will appear.
- kian 7y ago
  7500 per day is roughly the death rate of the country as a whole. We're less than 4 doubling periods from that.
  - lurquer 7y ago
    I'd like to see what the current daily number of deaths is for US. UK has a good current weekly tally. Can't find anything similar for US. It would be helpful to determine the amount of overlap. That is, there has been a precipitous drop in pneumonia deaths since January. (That stat is tallied at CDC on a weekly basis.) how many of those have been recatagorized as covid deaths?
    - credit_guy 7y ago
      This is what I use: https://www.bing.com/covid/local/unitedstates https://www.bing.com/covid/local/unitedstates As of now (4/4, 4pm EST) I can see 1376 fatalities in the last day, and a total of 8283.
      - lurquer 7y ago
        No, I mean daily US deaths from ALL causes.
        verdverm 7y ago
        It's roughly 7500 daily in the US. another way is the Ave global CDR calculated at the mid point of the year. 1.8% Birth 0.8% Death ~360M * 0.008
    - nostrademons 7y ago
      The drop in pneumonia deaths is largely because flu season is ending. Before COVID, flu was one of the leading causes of pneumonia, and pneumonia deaths typically trend alongside flu season.
      - lurquer 7y ago
        Data cones before analysis... I'd like to see the increase (If any) of actual deaths in US on a week by week basis. Just looking for a good source of that number... If it exists.

sschueller 7y ago

"About 647,000 Americans die from heart disease each year" [1] So even if 200k die from COVID19 it is a long way away from heart disease. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/heartdisease/facts.htm https://www.cdc.gov/heartdisease/facts.htm

phillipseamore 7y ago

Well, deaths attributed to C-19 should also decrease other deaths (i.e. total deaths should be equal or more, but other causes should decrease). This is not a 100% add-on.

jmiskovic 7y ago
It's more complicated. The lockdown has slowed down spread of other diseases and lowered traffic causalities. On the other hand normally treatable conditions are not getting the required attention. It is impossible to get clear picture of whole effect on death statistics.