> 80% sounds bad but the chance of two launches failing is 4%, which means a 96% chance overall success rate. I don't disagree but I also don't think it's alwa

> 80% sounds bad but the chance of two launches failing is 4%, which means a 96% chance overall success rate. I don't disagree but I also don't think it's always as straightforward as probability theory would make us believe. One can imagine situations where a certain amount of QA leads to a certain semi-predictable amount of failures that allows for calculated risks to be taken, but one can also imagine situations where paying 2X leads to better solutions and processes and not paying 2X leads to failure on both the first and second launches.