> False. ULA has launched commercial flights in the past[1] Lets be clear here. Before SpaceX showed up the US had about 0% of the commercial launch market. An

> False. ULA has launched commercial flights in the past[1] Lets be clear here. Before SpaceX showed up the US had about 0% of the commercial launch market. And yes, ULA had a couple of commercial launches, but incredibly few, you could probably count all the commercial launches in the post-2000 on one hand. What you say is true, Falcon 9 is also more expensive for the DoD as well. But we are still talking about 40M plus in difference minimum. > Rocket Lab is winning contracts that would've previously gone to SpaceX I would disagree with that. Maybe a few rideshares (tiny, tiny market) but more likely those would launch on ISRO rocket or one from China. > No. An Ariane 5 costs around €100 million. Unless you got really unlucky with the exchange rate that isn't 200 million USD. Whats your evidence for that? That would price would make Ariane 5 dominate in the GTO missions and they clearly are not. If that were their price they would not have thrown away the Ariane 5 to replace it with Ariane 6. Btw, they officially said that Ariane 6 would be around 100M and it has less performance then Ariane 5. That would be a pretty stupid thing to do if the Ariane 5 were 100M$ as the Ariane 6 is less performant then 5. I have done this research a few years ago, and I can't send you reference to the price, but I am 100% sure its much more then 100M$. > In particular the payloads that no other American launch vehicle is physically capable of delivering The DoD has already certified that they can fly all orbits that the DoD requires. However your argument is correct for a small number of launches. Mostly those that require a larger fairing or vertical integration. SpaceX is adding the larger fairing and a vertical integration bay, they are now already allowed to compete for all future DoD launches. Until the last contract handout, ULA absolutely was the only provider so many of the flights on their books are from that. But on those alone ULA could not survive. We will see how the EELV2 turns out. I think the evidence is pretty clear that SpaceX is by far the cheapest and it seems they are making the best margin as well. Sorry if my initial statement was rude.