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I’m not sure what your examples have to do with anything. Do you think people can will themselves to success independent of their circumstances? It’s obvious fa

I’m not sure what your examples have to do with anything. Do you think people can will themselves to success independent of their circumstances? It’s obvious factors outside of your control determine 99.99% of your outcomes. Literally all the data agrees with me here. Don’t know what you’re arguing for exactly. That some people get lucky and some of those lucky people worked hard?

rudiv 7y ago
It's easier to believe we live in a just world than to think critically about the societies we live in.
- WalterBright 7y ago
  It's easier to make excuses than learn what needs to be done, make a plan, and execute it.
  - sokoloff 7y ago
    Particularly when these excuses aren’t subject to rigorous outcome testing or any feedback process at all. A wrong, convenient excuse is slightly less useful but is much more satiating than a correct excuse.
- newfeatureok 7y ago
  Unfortunately many people have a poor understanding of statistics and cherry pick examples to fit their agenda.
  - icelancer 7y ago
    Even worse when people use averages as a method of policymaking for everyone, rather than realize that history is made by the exceptions. Not the averages.
WalterBright 7y ago
> Literally all the data agrees with me here. I just quoted several data points that did not agree with "all the data". If they can succeed, why can't you? I also know a Microsoft executive who didn't attend college, and I'm not sure even graduated from high school. His father owned a hole-in-the-wall store. Fortunately for him, he didn't listen to "it's all luck". Most of the people I know don't fit into your "it's all luck" data. For all the people who think it's all luck being a CEO, how many have even read a book on how to run a business?
- michaelmrose 7y ago
  Your place in life is the intersection of circumstance and merit. Imagine 4 integers (MeritWeight * Merit) * (CircumstancesWeight Circumstances) We can disagree what respective weights ought to be assigned but its pretty clear that it circumstances favor you sufficiently your trajectory is high regardless of merit. If your Merit is high enough your trajectory may be high regardless of merit. I don't think anyone disagrees much even though passionate arguments are passed by all. The thing is that only a minority are gifted by circumstances and most people are neither worthless nor extremely worthy. The merely average are bound for average lives at best in most cases and often for lesser lives depending on how other circumstances of their lives play out. When people say that life is unfair, which it is, and you say but look here is a list of a minority of worthy who made good despite middling or worse circumstances as if this itself were a refutation you are aren't even addressing the same argument, let alone refuting it. For the record. The average small business owners salary is 66-73k in the US. By contrast the median individual income is 40k. A middle class individual whose father owned a "hole in the wall" had a family that probably had more to start with than 70% of their fellows. This example is itself a demonstration of your lack of perspective. You literally think someone who started off better than average started out with substantial disadvantages.
  - WalterBright 7y ago
    > who started off better than average I knew him, and you didn't. The idea he was in the top 30% would certainly make him laugh. Lots of store owners barely scrape by.

rudiv 7y ago

It's easier to believe we live in a just world than to think critically about the societies we live in.

WalterBright 7y ago
It's easier to make excuses than learn what needs to be done, make a plan, and execute it.
- sokoloff 7y ago
  Particularly when these excuses aren’t subject to rigorous outcome testing or any feedback process at all. A wrong, convenient excuse is slightly less useful but is much more satiating than a correct excuse.
newfeatureok 7y ago
Unfortunately many people have a poor understanding of statistics and cherry pick examples to fit their agenda.
- icelancer 7y ago
  Even worse when people use averages as a method of policymaking for everyone, rather than realize that history is made by the exceptions. Not the averages.

WalterBright 7y ago

> Literally all the data agrees with me here. I just quoted several data points that did not agree with "all the data". If they can succeed, why can't you? I also know a Microsoft executive who didn't attend college, and I'm not sure even graduated from high school. His father owned a hole-in-the-wall store. Fortunately for him, he didn't listen to "it's all luck". Most of the people I know don't fit into your "it's all luck" data. For all the people who think it's all luck being a CEO, how many have even read a book on how to run a business?

michaelmrose 7y ago
Your place in life is the intersection of circumstance and merit. Imagine 4 integers (MeritWeight * Merit) * (CircumstancesWeight Circumstances) We can disagree what respective weights ought to be assigned but its pretty clear that it circumstances favor you sufficiently your trajectory is high regardless of merit. If your Merit is high enough your trajectory may be high regardless of merit. I don't think anyone disagrees much even though passionate arguments are passed by all. The thing is that only a minority are gifted by circumstances and most people are neither worthless nor extremely worthy. The merely average are bound for average lives at best in most cases and often for lesser lives depending on how other circumstances of their lives play out. When people say that life is unfair, which it is, and you say but look here is a list of a minority of worthy who made good despite middling or worse circumstances as if this itself were a refutation you are aren't even addressing the same argument, let alone refuting it. For the record. The average small business owners salary is 66-73k in the US. By contrast the median individual income is 40k. A middle class individual whose father owned a "hole in the wall" had a family that probably had more to start with than 70% of their fellows. This example is itself a demonstration of your lack of perspective. You literally think someone who started off better than average started out with substantial disadvantages.
- WalterBright 7y ago
  > who started off better than average I knew him, and you didn't. The idea he was in the top 30% would certainly make him laugh. Lots of store owners barely scrape by.