3 ms·

I think the issue is, a) We reopen early, transmissions rates rise again, we have to go through another shutdown, let's say that's another month and a half. b)

I think the issue is, a) We reopen early, transmissions rates rise again, we have to go through another shutdown, let's say that's another month and a half. b) We wait an extra two weeks, things reopen, no cascade in transmissions. In either case, "Wall street" will do fine, in case (a), "Main street" gets extra dead. (time spans are made up, but the idea that a relapse would be longer I think is solid)

ahelwer 7y ago
It is impossible to reopen without Taiwan-style temperature checks & mask requirements outside buildings, contact tracing, large-scale testing, and quarantine enforced by penalty of law (with corresponding support systems - get the police to do something useful and bring people groceries). Anything else and we'll be right back in lockdown inside of a month.
- meddlepal 7y ago
  Then this is all pointless because it will take years to retrofit everything with that level of testing and tracing and make it useful in some way as well as enforcing isolation. We might as well open up and suffer the consequences until we have herd immunity even if that means a lot of deaths.
  - ahelwer 7y ago
    It doesn't sound like a particularly tall order to me. Also, the alternative isn't opening up - which is utterly psychopathic and would kill millions - but continue in lockdown until a vaccine is developed within two years.
IAmGraydon 7y ago
You’re forgetting the possibility that a large percentage of the US population is already infected and asymptomatic, in which case the shutdown was ineffective in the first place.
- macintux 7y ago
  We can’t act on that possibility without data.
  - rayuela 7y ago
    That's why we should be conducting random tests on samplings of the populations. This would be a statistics problem.
    - macintux 7y ago
      I absolutely agree, but we’re currently SOL.
chrisco255 7y ago
No, Wall Street will not do fine. There's real risk of a great depression and a series of bankruptcies and massive layoffs.
- vearwhershuh 7y ago
  Wall street, elite wall street, is licking its chops right now. They have direct access to the virtual printing press, and can manufacture money (debt) whenever they want. The more distressed properties become, the better for them. Individual investors and low level financial industry employees will be hit hard, but that's not who I'm talking about.

ahelwer 7y ago

It is impossible to reopen without Taiwan-style temperature checks & mask requirements outside buildings, contact tracing, large-scale testing, and quarantine enforced by penalty of law (with corresponding support systems - get the police to do something useful and bring people groceries). Anything else and we'll be right back in lockdown inside of a month.

meddlepal 7y ago
Then this is all pointless because it will take years to retrofit everything with that level of testing and tracing and make it useful in some way as well as enforcing isolation. We might as well open up and suffer the consequences until we have herd immunity even if that means a lot of deaths.
- ahelwer 7y ago
  It doesn't sound like a particularly tall order to me. Also, the alternative isn't opening up - which is utterly psychopathic and would kill millions - but continue in lockdown until a vaccine is developed within two years.

IAmGraydon 7y ago

You’re forgetting the possibility that a large percentage of the US population is already infected and asymptomatic, in which case the shutdown was ineffective in the first place.

macintux 7y ago
We can’t act on that possibility without data.
- rayuela 7y ago
  That's why we should be conducting random tests on samplings of the populations. This would be a statistics problem.
  - macintux 7y ago
    I absolutely agree, but we’re currently SOL.

chrisco255 7y ago

No, Wall Street will not do fine. There's real risk of a great depression and a series of bankruptcies and massive layoffs.

vearwhershuh 7y ago
Wall street, elite wall street, is licking its chops right now. They have direct access to the virtual printing press, and can manufacture money (debt) whenever they want. The more distressed properties become, the better for them. Individual investors and low level financial industry employees will be hit hard, but that's not who I'm talking about.