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Yet you wouldn't know it based on the stock market. Apperently all of this is "priced in"

bequanna 7y ago
The prevailing belief is still that this will only be a several week ‘pause’ on an otherwise strong economy. Most seem to expect a V-shaped recovery.
- jdhn 7y ago
  This is why I'm still putting money into my investing accounts, but not buying anything. If it's anything other than a V shaped recovery, stocks are going to be hammered, and there'll be even more buying opportunities than there are now.
  - bequanna 7y ago
    Certainly not a bad time to have some cash.
- selectodude 7y ago
  Economists have sort of walked back from that as a prevailing belief.
oh_sigh 7y ago
It doesn't make a ton of sense to heavily discount the value of a company based on what you believe will be a short term global event.
itake 7y ago
58,000 businesses are about to get free money. Even if they don't "need" the money, they are cashing in on the deal.
conanbatt 7y ago
Stockmarket is like 25% below its ATH weeks ago.
- ericd 7y ago
  Put another way, it's where it was in August 2017. Do you think that's a bit optimistic, to say that the economic prospects for the S&P 500 are about as good as they were in 2017?
  - pbourke 7y ago
    In the absence of information there is abundant speculation. I remember Trump’s “parade of CEOs” speech, and how it was a glaring attempt to goose the market at the end of the week. Nothing of substance was announced, but the market shot up 10%. Pure speculation. The music will stop playing when Q1 earnings are released and then we’ll see a stampede for the exits.
  - conanbatt 7y ago
    The companies they are now are not the same they were in 2017. They have a lot more knowledge, capital, etc. i.e. Would you say Tesla is more or less capable of building cars today than they were in 2017?
    - ericd 7y ago
      Unless I’m mistaken, Tesla hasn’t yet met the sustained profitability requirements to join the S&P 500. Do the companies in the S&P have a lot more capital than three years ago? They certainly have a lot more debt. My screeners for companies in great shape in terms of cash reserves vs debt are turning up a pathetically small number of companies.
      - conanbatt 7y ago
        My point is that looking at dollars purely nominally is not representative of the economy or the value of a company. Apple might have a stock price of 2017 (they don't but for the sake of argument) but the phones they deliver are not 2017, they are state-of-the-art. Its not like 1 year of no profits turns a company into 0 value, its about the long term prospects.
GhostVII 7y ago
The market has crashed like 25%, so yes it is priced in to some extent. Also, small businesses aren't traded on the stock market, so I think it makes sense that the market wouldn't be affected by this. In the long run, small businesses failing probably helps companies like Amazon and Walmart, which are publicly traded.
- saiya-jin 7y ago
  Yet even the biggest recent dip sent S&P 500 to levels of say July 2017 when all was super rosy. That doesn't represent the whole market of course but markets now don't really reflect the situation very well. You can't have a scenario when most folks go into super-saving mode and companies like Amazon or Google maintain their profits. Who the heck would advertise with Google for same prices? I already abandoned non-nencessary shopping (basically food & fuel) for at least few months, Amazon will have to feel this too.
  - tathougies 7y ago
    Amazon is making bank on delivery and whole foods. They likely have more business than ever, and are increasing their prices (as they should, they're providing a vital service!).
tathougies 7y ago
Well duh. The stock market represents some of the companies doing perfectly well right now, like 3M, Amazon, Zoom, Netflix, Costco, Walmart, etc. Also, why should you even expect the airline industry to be valued less when they in aggregate provide a vital service that would be doing perfectly well were it not for a virus. It makes the most sense to hold and not sell, except for the incredibly weak willed.

The prevailing belief is still that this will only be a several week ‘pause’ on an otherwise strong economy. Most seem to expect a V-shaped recovery.

jdhn 7y ago
This is why I'm still putting money into my investing accounts, but not buying anything. If it's anything other than a V shaped recovery, stocks are going to be hammered, and there'll be even more buying opportunities than there are now.
- bequanna 7y ago
  Certainly not a bad time to have some cash.
selectodude 7y ago
Economists have sort of walked back from that as a prevailing belief.

oh_sigh 7y ago

It doesn't make a ton of sense to heavily discount the value of a company based on what you believe will be a short term global event.

itake 7y ago

58,000 businesses are about to get free money. Even if they don't "need" the money, they are cashing in on the deal.

conanbatt 7y ago

Stockmarket is like 25% below its ATH weeks ago.

ericd 7y ago
Put another way, it's where it was in August 2017. Do you think that's a bit optimistic, to say that the economic prospects for the S&P 500 are about as good as they were in 2017?
- pbourke 7y ago
  In the absence of information there is abundant speculation. I remember Trump’s “parade of CEOs” speech, and how it was a glaring attempt to goose the market at the end of the week. Nothing of substance was announced, but the market shot up 10%. Pure speculation. The music will stop playing when Q1 earnings are released and then we’ll see a stampede for the exits.
- conanbatt 7y ago
  The companies they are now are not the same they were in 2017. They have a lot more knowledge, capital, etc. i.e. Would you say Tesla is more or less capable of building cars today than they were in 2017?
  - ericd 7y ago
    Unless I’m mistaken, Tesla hasn’t yet met the sustained profitability requirements to join the S&P 500. Do the companies in the S&P have a lot more capital than three years ago? They certainly have a lot more debt. My screeners for companies in great shape in terms of cash reserves vs debt are turning up a pathetically small number of companies.
    - conanbatt 7y ago
      My point is that looking at dollars purely nominally is not representative of the economy or the value of a company. Apple might have a stock price of 2017 (they don't but for the sake of argument) but the phones they deliver are not 2017, they are state-of-the-art. Its not like 1 year of no profits turns a company into 0 value, its about the long term prospects.

GhostVII 7y ago

The market has crashed like 25%, so yes it is priced in to some extent. Also, small businesses aren't traded on the stock market, so I think it makes sense that the market wouldn't be affected by this. In the long run, small businesses failing probably helps companies like Amazon and Walmart, which are publicly traded.

saiya-jin 7y ago
Yet even the biggest recent dip sent S&P 500 to levels of say July 2017 when all was super rosy. That doesn't represent the whole market of course but markets now don't really reflect the situation very well. You can't have a scenario when most folks go into super-saving mode and companies like Amazon or Google maintain their profits. Who the heck would advertise with Google for same prices? I already abandoned non-nencessary shopping (basically food & fuel) for at least few months, Amazon will have to feel this too.
- tathougies 7y ago
  Amazon is making bank on delivery and whole foods. They likely have more business than ever, and are increasing their prices (as they should, they're providing a vital service!).

tathougies 7y ago

Well duh. The stock market represents some of the companies doing perfectly well right now, like 3M, Amazon, Zoom, Netflix, Costco, Walmart, etc. Also, why should you even expect the airline industry to be valued less when they in aggregate provide a vital service that would be doing perfectly well were it not for a virus. It makes the most sense to hold and not sell, except for the incredibly weak willed.