The societal cost of covid19 vs social distancing depends on the time scale. Three to six months? Covid19 is almost certainly worse. Nine to twelve months?

The societal cost of covid19 vs social distancing depends on the time scale. Three to six months? Covid19 is almost certainly worse. Nine to twelve months? Fifteen months? Two years? Strict social distancing will be much much worse at those time scales. People will starve and segments of the logistical network necessary to sustain the medical industry will be in danger of collapsing. Not to mention the enormous strain on governments and services caring for tens if not hundreds of millions of people. Lucky for us, South Korea has shown that this thing is beatable, even without a vaccine. Exhaustive testing, contact tracing, and enhanced hygiene measure are a great follow up for social distancing (though I have no idea what's going to happen in southeast Asia or Africa). But larger countries will require more supplies and time to manage the virus. The question I haven't heard the answer to yet is how long can the shutdown last before it effects our ability to treat covid19 and provide for basic necessities? I'd rather not we not figure that one out the hard way. We need to be looking for active solutions and this article provides some good ideas.