3 ms·

There is also the massive economic costs of everyone who gets sick. With uncontrolled pandemic, something like 5-10% of people would be out sick, 20% of those i

There is also the massive economic costs of everyone who gets sick. With uncontrolled pandemic, something like 5-10% of people would be out sick, 20% of those in the hospital. Plus, all the people who are caring for the sick or quarantined. Essential businesses which are in person would be more vulnerable. There is a significant risk that health care, manufacturing, transportation, or grocery stores would need to shut down because too many workers are out sick and the rest are afraid to come to work.

acqq 7y ago
> With uncontrolled pandemic, something like 5-10% of people would be out sick, 20% of those in the hospital. It doesn't look that that estimate is nearly right. It is true that there are always people reported as "tested positive having no symptoms at the moment" but that is different from "tested positive and never developed the symptoms" due to the point where we are in the exponential curve. In short, the numbers could be significantly worse in an uncontrolled pandemic. Now if it's only e.g. every second person that can be infected and completely remained asymptotic all the time, in an uncontrolled outbreak you'd have a moment where e.g. 10% of all population is so sick to need the hospital. And no system could sustain that. The reason for the huge hospital need is not "to give them a nice bed" but that they could be exactly those who will eventually need the machine to be kept alive.