Even if the current US shutdowns are effective, no more than 5 or 10 percent of the population will have gained immunity. We'll be nowhere near what's required

Even if the current US shutdowns are effective, no more than 5 or 10 percent of the population will have gained immunity. We'll be nowhere near what's required for herd immunity. The shutdowns will at best give us a "do over", a second chance. The only way to end the shutdowns and not have cases explode again will be to replace them with a smarter strategy: wide-scale testing, fast contact tracing, antibody tests, mask-wearing, temperature checks, social distancing. The federal and state governments need to be planning this now. The virus has an R0 over 3 and getting it below 1 will not be easy. This all disappears if we find a vaccine or therapy, but hoping for that is not a plan.