4 ms·

Depends what you mean by "this" - do you really believe we won't be allowed to leave our homes for anything non-essential for over a year?

markus_zhang 7y ago
I don't think it can be comoletely ruled out. However I do believe that's a maximun as the vaccine will be well tested and released in under a year.
- throwanem 7y ago
  Where are you seeing that? Every projection of which I'm aware has been in the range of 12-18 months. It's reasonable to hope for faster, but not to plan on that basis.
- standardUser 7y ago
  You can safely rule out a one year lockdown because people will not tolerate it. They will violate the lockdown and the virus will spread.
- imustbeevil 7y ago
  > the vaccine will be well tested and released in under a year. This is a bizarre misunderstanding of the vaccine development process.
- TechBro8615 7y ago
  I'm just a layman, but my understanding of vaccine development is that the timeline has little to do with how long it takes to actually research, make or distribute the thing (although that's certainly part of it). The reason you need to wait so long is to prove its efficacy. By definition, you make a vaccine to give to everyone who is healthy and does not have the virus. So the absolute worst possible outcome would be to inject 95% of the population with a vaccine and discover in 6 months that it causes some horrible side effect.
- beerandt 7y ago
  Well the other option is that everyone already catches it by then, and we move in without the immediate need for a vaccine, depending on length of natural immunity. Which I think is becoming the more likely outcome, given the increase in non symptomatic carriers. The catch will be if we attribute a drop off in hospital admits as successful containment or as the result of natural immunization/ herd immunity.
amanaplanacanal 7y ago
I'm just curious. Where do you live that you are not allowed to leave your home? I know different places are implementing social distancing differently.
- GordonS 7y ago
  UK - we're only permitted to go out if it's essential[0], such as buying food or collecting medicine. You're also permitted to travel to work, only if you have a job you can't do from home, and you work at one of the designated "essential" businesses/organisations. You're also allowed out for excercise. The police here have in some cases been acting with ludicrous heavy-handedness, such as posting drone footage of 1-2 people walking over an empty moor, claiming they shouldn't because it's "NOT ESSENTIAL!". The actual laws actually seem quite reasonable, and leave room for common sense - hopefully the police will stop this nonsense, or their behaviour may cause people to lose respect and start flaunting the rules. I believe it's the same situation across most/all of Europe now. [0] https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus
  - DanBC 7y ago
    The actual law is a little bit more permissive. https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/contents/made https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/contents/made This difference between the law and the government guidance seems to be causing a few teething troubles as police adjust to it.
    - GordonS 7y ago
      Hah, I actually just updated my comment to make that kind of thing clearer, and see someone has already pointed it out ;)

markus_zhang 7y ago

I don't think it can be comoletely ruled out. However I do believe that's a maximun as the vaccine will be well tested and released in under a year.

throwanem 7y ago
Where are you seeing that? Every projection of which I'm aware has been in the range of 12-18 months. It's reasonable to hope for faster, but not to plan on that basis.
standardUser 7y ago
You can safely rule out a one year lockdown because people will not tolerate it. They will violate the lockdown and the virus will spread.
imustbeevil 7y ago
> the vaccine will be well tested and released in under a year. This is a bizarre misunderstanding of the vaccine development process.
TechBro8615 7y ago
I'm just a layman, but my understanding of vaccine development is that the timeline has little to do with how long it takes to actually research, make or distribute the thing (although that's certainly part of it). The reason you need to wait so long is to prove its efficacy. By definition, you make a vaccine to give to everyone who is healthy and does not have the virus. So the absolute worst possible outcome would be to inject 95% of the population with a vaccine and discover in 6 months that it causes some horrible side effect.
beerandt 7y ago
Well the other option is that everyone already catches it by then, and we move in without the immediate need for a vaccine, depending on length of natural immunity. Which I think is becoming the more likely outcome, given the increase in non symptomatic carriers. The catch will be if we attribute a drop off in hospital admits as successful containment or as the result of natural immunization/ herd immunity.

amanaplanacanal 7y ago

I'm just curious. Where do you live that you are not allowed to leave your home? I know different places are implementing social distancing differently.

GordonS 7y ago
UK - we're only permitted to go out if it's essential[0], such as buying food or collecting medicine. You're also permitted to travel to work, only if you have a job you can't do from home, and you work at one of the designated "essential" businesses/organisations. You're also allowed out for excercise. The police here have in some cases been acting with ludicrous heavy-handedness, such as posting drone footage of 1-2 people walking over an empty moor, claiming they shouldn't because it's "NOT ESSENTIAL!". The actual laws actually seem quite reasonable, and leave room for common sense - hopefully the police will stop this nonsense, or their behaviour may cause people to lose respect and start flaunting the rules. I believe it's the same situation across most/all of Europe now. [0] https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus
- DanBC 7y ago
  The actual law is a little bit more permissive. https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/contents/made https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/contents/made This difference between the law and the government guidance seems to be causing a few teething troubles as police adjust to it.
  - GordonS 7y ago
    Hah, I actually just updated my comment to make that kind of thing clearer, and see someone has already pointed it out ;)