4 ms·

What do others think the right timeline to plan for is, and is there anything different people should be doing if it's going to be another 6 months or longer? P

by dbish 7y ago

What do others think the right timeline to plan for is, and is there anything different people should be doing if it's going to be another 6 months or longer? Personally, I'm assuming this will last until at least September. Better to be pleasantly surprised if it's earlier.

standardUser 7y ago
It's unlikely most Americans will tolerate a 5-6 month lockdown. Eventually quarantine violations will hit a tipping point and the transmission rate will jump, likely overwhelming our healthcare system.
- CPLX 7y ago
  > It's unlikely most Americans will tolerate a 5-6 month lockdown. It's not really a matter of tolerating, they'll literally start starving to death at a certain point. A couple months is enough time for credit cards to be cancelled for lack of payments or all limits to be hit, enough time for these various stimulus plans to run out, etc. Enough time for all but the most well capitalized businesses to just fail. A massive percentage of the country just can't survive that long. There's more ways to die than just COVID.
LandR 7y ago
In the UK I'm expecting restrictions and lockdowns till around October ish.
kd5bjo 7y ago
> Is there anything different people should be doing if it's going to be another 6 months or longer? With the sort of open-ended timeline we’re talking about, it’s important to take as broad a look as you can at the things you’ve had to cut out, what need they were filling for you, and what substitute activities can cover those needs. Most people instinctively understand this for things like food, shelter, and income, but the needs higher up Maslow’s hierarchy also need to be considered. That’s things like stress reduction, emotional support, physical activity, intellectual stimulation, comraderie, creativity, escapism, etc.
blihp 7y ago
I'm planning on stay at home lasting (here in the U.S.) until sometime between early June and late-July. I think once it is lifted (probably in stages) we'll have all sorts of restrictions on larger gatherings throughout at least the end of the year. That's not to say that it will be over by then, just that the rate of cases will be manageable and hospitals will have the resources they need to handle them. As for what to do to plan for it, I'm mainly just keeping a good supply of easy to prepare food on hand with a long shelf life. Other than that, I'm not sure what can be done that doesn't start to venture into tinfoil hat territory.
intopieces 7y ago
The timeline to plan for is vaccine + 6 months; best estimate for a vaccine is Spring 2021. If I see the inside of a movie theater in Summer 2021 I will be pleasantly surprised. Buy two of whatever you get 1 of every time you go to the grocery store, which should be no more than once per week.
Rapzid 7y ago
We've only got a few months in the tank economically and flattening the curve alone will keep us on lock-down for years. They aren't talking too much about it but the plan is almost certainly to buy time to transition to a new strategy. The keys to this IMO will be squashing new cases, those 15 minute tests(billions of them), a health enforcement agency of some sort to conduct tracing and targeted quarantines, and increasing the capacity of the health system. The pieces could be in place July-ish.. Unfortunately it's going to take an impressive display of administrative competency at the federal level.
- intopieces 7y ago
  >The pieces could be in place July-ish.. Unfortunately it's going to take an impressive display of administrative competency at the federal level. I hope when all is said and done, people take their state governments more seriously. The federal government is just not equipped to handle this kind of issue. I've been impressed with California's level of response.

by dbish 7y ago

standardUser 7y ago

It's unlikely most Americans will tolerate a 5-6 month lockdown. Eventually quarantine violations will hit a tipping point and the transmission rate will jump, likely overwhelming our healthcare system.

CPLX 7y ago
> It's unlikely most Americans will tolerate a 5-6 month lockdown. It's not really a matter of tolerating, they'll literally start starving to death at a certain point. A couple months is enough time for credit cards to be cancelled for lack of payments or all limits to be hit, enough time for these various stimulus plans to run out, etc. Enough time for all but the most well capitalized businesses to just fail. A massive percentage of the country just can't survive that long. There's more ways to die than just COVID.

LandR 7y ago

In the UK I'm expecting restrictions and lockdowns till around October ish.

kd5bjo 7y ago

> Is there anything different people should be doing if it's going to be another 6 months or longer? With the sort of open-ended timeline we’re talking about, it’s important to take as broad a look as you can at the things you’ve had to cut out, what need they were filling for you, and what substitute activities can cover those needs. Most people instinctively understand this for things like food, shelter, and income, but the needs higher up Maslow’s hierarchy also need to be considered. That’s things like stress reduction, emotional support, physical activity, intellectual stimulation, comraderie, creativity, escapism, etc.

blihp 7y ago

I'm planning on stay at home lasting (here in the U.S.) until sometime between early June and late-July. I think once it is lifted (probably in stages) we'll have all sorts of restrictions on larger gatherings throughout at least the end of the year. That's not to say that it will be over by then, just that the rate of cases will be manageable and hospitals will have the resources they need to handle them. As for what to do to plan for it, I'm mainly just keeping a good supply of easy to prepare food on hand with a long shelf life. Other than that, I'm not sure what can be done that doesn't start to venture into tinfoil hat territory.

intopieces 7y ago

The timeline to plan for is vaccine + 6 months; best estimate for a vaccine is Spring 2021. If I see the inside of a movie theater in Summer 2021 I will be pleasantly surprised. Buy two of whatever you get 1 of every time you go to the grocery store, which should be no more than once per week.

Rapzid 7y ago

We've only got a few months in the tank economically and flattening the curve alone will keep us on lock-down for years. They aren't talking too much about it but the plan is almost certainly to buy time to transition to a new strategy. The keys to this IMO will be squashing new cases, those 15 minute tests(billions of them), a health enforcement agency of some sort to conduct tracing and targeted quarantines, and increasing the capacity of the health system. The pieces could be in place July-ish.. Unfortunately it's going to take an impressive display of administrative competency at the federal level.

intopieces 7y ago
>The pieces could be in place July-ish.. Unfortunately it's going to take an impressive display of administrative competency at the federal level. I hope when all is said and done, people take their state governments more seriously. The federal government is just not equipped to handle this kind of issue. I've been impressed with California's level of response.