5 ms·

Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate

samizdis 7y ago
As the epidemiologist quoted in the article points out, the sample size is too small to generalise - and he adds further, weighty caveats. But rates of asymptomatic infection, and transmission, are surely crucial to establish to inform best-practice response.
- awaythrower 7y ago
  Yes. We shouldn't draw firm conclusions from sketchy data, although we should "play it safe" based on preliminary data. More creative, ethical, larger sample-size studies on transmission modalities need to be prioritized to focus remediation. Perhaps massive testing across the populace, symptom characterization and measuring virion shedding as directly as possible. If we don't know how it spreads or what kind of carriers spread it, fear and anxiety of the unknown will only compound the situation.
tonyedgecombe 7y ago
Chinese authorities began publishing daily figures on 1 April Doesn't this mean they are asymptomatic so far, the results might look different in a week.
aaron695 7y ago
In Iceland it's 50% so meh, this seems correct enough. What does it mean though? How does China not have mass deaths atm then? They have lied a lot in Wuhan, but they can't outright hide mass kill offs. https://www.businessinsider.com/iceland-coronavirus-pandemic-approach-could-help-other-countries-2020-4 https://www.businessinsider.com/iceland-coronavirus-pandemic...
- jobigoud 7y ago
  In Iceland the sample is not random. It's based on people volunteering, people with symptoms are going to be overrepresented.
- Recurecur 7y ago
  "How does China not have mass deaths atm then? They have lied a lot in Wuhan, but they can't outright hide mass kill offs." They have almost certainly hidden mass deaths: "WUHAN COVID-19 DEATH TOLL MAY BE IN TENS OF THOUSANDS, DATA ON CREMATIONS AND SHIPMENTS OF URNS SUGGEST" https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-covid-19-death-toll-may-tens-thousands-data-cremations-shipments-urns-suggest-1494914 https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-covid-19-death-toll-may-tens-... As the old saying goes: "The truth will out."

As the epidemiologist quoted in the article points out, the sample size is too small to generalise - and he adds further, weighty caveats. But rates of asymptomatic infection, and transmission, are surely crucial to establish to inform best-practice response.

awaythrower 7y ago
Yes. We shouldn't draw firm conclusions from sketchy data, although we should "play it safe" based on preliminary data. More creative, ethical, larger sample-size studies on transmission modalities need to be prioritized to focus remediation. Perhaps massive testing across the populace, symptom characterization and measuring virion shedding as directly as possible. If we don't know how it spreads or what kind of carriers spread it, fear and anxiety of the unknown will only compound the situation.

tonyedgecombe 7y ago

Chinese authorities began publishing daily figures on 1 April Doesn't this mean they are asymptomatic so far, the results might look different in a week.

aaron695 7y ago

In Iceland it's 50% so meh, this seems correct enough. What does it mean though? How does China not have mass deaths atm then? They have lied a lot in Wuhan, but they can't outright hide mass kill offs. https://www.businessinsider.com/iceland-coronavirus-pandemic-approach-could-help-other-countries-2020-4 https://www.businessinsider.com/iceland-coronavirus-pandemic...

jobigoud 7y ago
In Iceland the sample is not random. It's based on people volunteering, people with symptoms are going to be overrepresented.
Recurecur 7y ago
"How does China not have mass deaths atm then? They have lied a lot in Wuhan, but they can't outright hide mass kill offs." They have almost certainly hidden mass deaths: "WUHAN COVID-19 DEATH TOLL MAY BE IN TENS OF THOUSANDS, DATA ON CREMATIONS AND SHIPMENTS OF URNS SUGGEST" https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-covid-19-death-toll-may-tens-thousands-data-cremations-shipments-urns-suggest-1494914 https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-covid-19-death-toll-may-tens-... As the old saying goes: "The truth will out."