4 ms·

"Common sense" and "intuition" is what let people look at the early stages of an exponential curve and say "this won't be a big deal". These things are no subst

by xen0 7y ago

"Common sense" and "intuition" is what let people look at the early stages of an exponential curve and say "this won't be a big deal". These things are no substitute for expertise. And I don't recall anyone saying face masks were useless when worn by people who were already ill.

ceejayoz 7y ago
> And I don't recall anyone saying face masks were useless when worn by people who were already ill. They were, however, saying you don't need to wear it if you don't have symptoms, despite clear evidence of asymptomatic transmission.
ravenstine 7y ago
> "Common sense" and "intuition" is what let people look at the early stages of an exponential curve and say "this won't be a big deal". No, they actually aren't. The "this won't be a big deal" response resulted from a combination of conditioning(things were relatively safe for a long period of time), learned helplessness, and the MSM telling everyone that "it's just the flu". There were even pundits laughing at "crazy people" wearing masks for "just the flu". You're right, nobody said that(that I'm aware of). What they did say was that masks weren't effective for people not showing symptoms(unless if you are caring for a sick person), which is wrong on multiple levels. Even if you aren't showing symptoms, you could be shedding the virus, which was known months ago, hence a mask would be appropriate even for someone who isn't sick. There's also no evidence that the virus and the droplets that carry them are exempt from the ability of any kind of mask to filter things out of the air. If a mask is only 25% effective against the virus, that still means the person wearing a mask is less likely to get sick. All it takes for the common person to make the rational choice is a cost-benefit analysis. If the greatest cost of putting on a mask is that the mask does nothing and they are out a few bucks, then it's better to buy some masks ASAP and wait for a good reason not to wear them rather than letting their trust in authority gaslight them into believing the sky isn't blue.
- ceejayoz 7y ago
  I ran into someone with a finance degree who couldn't believe $0.01 doubled for thirty days wound up being over $5M. I had to show them an Excel spreadsheet of each day. Exponential growth is hard for people to grasp.
  - Izkata 7y ago
    And yet, it's the basis of a fable I heard as a kid in the 90s, where a girl tricks a ruler into giving her one grain of rice on the first day, two on the second, four on the third, doubling each day for a month. It almost induces a famine until she gifts it all back.

by xen0 7y ago

ceejayoz 7y ago

> And I don't recall anyone saying face masks were useless when worn by people who were already ill. They were, however, saying you don't need to wear it if you don't have symptoms, despite clear evidence of asymptomatic transmission.

ravenstine 7y ago

> "Common sense" and "intuition" is what let people look at the early stages of an exponential curve and say "this won't be a big deal". No, they actually aren't. The "this won't be a big deal" response resulted from a combination of conditioning(things were relatively safe for a long period of time), learned helplessness, and the MSM telling everyone that "it's just the flu". There were even pundits laughing at "crazy people" wearing masks for "just the flu". You're right, nobody said that(that I'm aware of). What they did say was that masks weren't effective for people not showing symptoms(unless if you are caring for a sick person), which is wrong on multiple levels. Even if you aren't showing symptoms, you could be shedding the virus, which was known months ago, hence a mask would be appropriate even for someone who isn't sick. There's also no evidence that the virus and the droplets that carry them are exempt from the ability of any kind of mask to filter things out of the air. If a mask is only 25% effective against the virus, that still means the person wearing a mask is less likely to get sick. All it takes for the common person to make the rational choice is a cost-benefit analysis. If the greatest cost of putting on a mask is that the mask does nothing and they are out a few bucks, then it's better to buy some masks ASAP and wait for a good reason not to wear them rather than letting their trust in authority gaslight them into believing the sky isn't blue.

ceejayoz 7y ago
I ran into someone with a finance degree who couldn't believe $0.01 doubled for thirty days wound up being over $5M. I had to show them an Excel spreadsheet of each day. Exponential growth is hard for people to grasp.
- Izkata 7y ago
  And yet, it's the basis of a fable I heard as a kid in the 90s, where a girl tricks a ruler into giving her one grain of rice on the first day, two on the second, four on the third, doubling each day for a month. It almost induces a famine until she gifts it all back.