4 ms·
> Will we fare better or worse than other, similar countries? We can’t know for sure, it’s only after it’s over that we can get a verdict. That is the whole po
by heartbeats 7y ago
> Will we fare better or worse than other, similar countries? We can’t know for sure, it’s only after it’s over that we can get a verdict.
That is the whole point - they're taking a gamble. You can draw up a matrix. If they don't do a lockdown, and it turns out to be not-very-dangerous, they will have saved the economy.
If they don't do a lockdown, and it turns out to be very dangerous, they will have the blood of hundreds of thousands on their hands. But the worst consequence that they can suffer is not getting re-elected.
Think of it like Russian roulette. If the payouts are [+10, +10, +10, +10, +10, -1000], your expected value is -158.3, but if your downside is limited to -20, your expected value is +5. It is not morally justified to take a 20% chance of killing 100'000 people for an 80% chance of raising GDP by 5% ($26 billion). That's 20'000 people for $21.2 billion, or $1.1 million per person.