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> The theory of lockdown, after all, is pretty niche, deeply illiberal — and, until now, untested. It’s not Sweden that’s conducting a mass experiment. It’s ev
by angarg12 7y ago
> The theory of lockdown, after all, is pretty niche, deeply illiberal — and, until now, untested. It’s not Sweden that’s conducting a mass experiment. It’s everyone else.
I don't buy that. China did a lockdown, and (at least officially) it has contained the disease. Also there are buckets of models and studies that support this course of action.
> We can expect our Covid-19 death figures to rise faster than our neighbours’ — still all within the confines of a bad winter flu, but these graphs can scare people.
Coronavirus is not 'like the flu'. There is so much data disproving this I won't even bother linking them. Do a Google search 'is coronavirus like the flu'.
> They publish their own models of the virus spread. It shows how many people will need hospital care: the system, they say, can cope. And when asked, they say they don’t think Imperial College has made a better call.
> This Swedish exceptionalism is about principle, not epidemiology.
> yes, they make us different to Italy and Spain
I feel like there is this narrative floating around that blames countries for their fate regarding Coronavirus. Sure, governments have done a better or worse job dealing with the outbreak, and different places were better or worse prepared. But the veiled message that I get is "Italy and Spain got so many deaths and their economy got wrecked because they are inferior".
- gohbgl 7y ago> I don't buy that. Well now you have a control group to compare against.
- raverbashing 7y agoControl group analysis has been very problematic in this epidemic A high % of people are asymptomatic or just has mild/moderate symptoms. People might not have known what hit them. Hence people might be tested (now) if they fit the symptoms. Might be tested, and might or might not be classified as Covid-19 without the tests And that's in countries with a good health system. Maybe some country with hundreds of official cases is already in the millions. Who knows?!
- defertoreptar 7y agoCovid-19 and flu do have similar symptoms: https://i.insider.com/5e6a58fee4f9fe5dad7d0932 https://i.insider.com/5e6a58fee4f9fe5dad7d0932 , so if you have one and are symptomatic, it wouldn't be hard to confuse it with the other. Where they're wrong is: 1) The death rate. Seasonal flu is around 0.1%, while covid-19 is likely between 0.5% to 1% (many figures in the news are inflated by selection bias due to testing being a limited resource). 2) Contagion. We have vaccines for seasonal flu. Covid-19 spreads much faster and stays alive in the air and on surfaces for much longer. 3) Hospital capacity due to the fast spread.