Great info (and scary), thank you. Is this based on assumptions that have a decent potential to not hold true, like e.g. lack of vaccines and adequate testing?

Great info (and scary), thank you. Is this based on assumptions that have a decent potential to not hold true, like e.g. lack of vaccines and adequate testing? Or does this assume those will happen in the next (say) ~year? And would you know if there are predictions on whether e.g. housing prices might fall?